The official word on Dallas County redistricting
I had a brief conversation earlier today with House redistricting chairman Burt Solomons. He agreed with what I wrote yesterday, which was that to pair Democrats in minority districts would violate the Voting Rights Act. Since the six Democrats in Dallas County are all either Hispanic (Anchia, Alonzo) or African-American (Davis, Mallory-Caraway, Johnson, Giddings), Republicans cannot pair Democrats without eliminating a minority seat. Theref0re, the two seats that Dallas County is expected to lose can only be Republican seats. Solomons confirmed that my post was right.
Since a couple of commenters had written that the House maps were already drawn, I asked Solomons about that as well. He scoffed at the idea. The data from the Census Bureau hasn’t been around long enough for people to have drawn maps.
Tamsterbath says:
I could see them drawing a new Democratic district and shoring up the remaining Republican ones. Of the current Republicans in Dallas County, four seats were won by Democrats in 08 and another was short by only 19 votes. If Dan Branch decides to run of AG, he may not care if his district is gone. Stefani Carter will do whatever it takes to keep hers, which included supporting Strauss although she says that she agrees with the Tea Party 99% of the time. Plus the Republicans will want to keep her in order to parade her around like they did the JC Watts. I agree with earlier posts that Kenneth Sheets will be a goner. I don’t think that he ever expected to get elected. They are able to create a new D district out of the 113, 114, 107 and 102 and shore up the surrounding areas. Kirk England should be able to win back 106 in 2012.
Reply »
Cow Droppings Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 9:06 am
“parade her around.” Nice — who says liberals don’t play the race card.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 10:16 am
It seems to me that the disgusting “parade her around” comment could have been written by a conservative as well.
Reply »
Cow Droppings Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 11:57 am
could have been in a different context? Sure. In this context, doesn’t look like it.
JohnBernardBooks says:
Why do democrats always assume that all blacks and mexicans consider themselves as minorities/democrats/victims and vote that way?
Reply »
KB Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 8:53 am
Because Republicans like you who speak about minorities in that way ensure they will. Just check out the impreMedia poll. Hispanics are not sure about Democrats, but they will NOT vote for Republicans.
http://blogs.chron.com/txpotomac/2011/02/latino_support_for_republicans.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+houstonchronicle%2Ftxpotomac+%28Texas+on+the+Potomac%29
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 11:49 am
Your response really doesn’t answer the question at all.
Reply »
Be real Paul says:
Just because the specific numbers haven’t been out until last week doesn’t mean that Straus’s people (and other LRB members) haven’t had a good guess at what they were going to look like and haven’t formulated plans for what districts they want to alter. This is what people mean when they say that the maps have already been drawn.
To assert otherwise is either ignorance or propaganda. The Straus crowd was making redistricting threats during the run-up to session. Those threats were significant precisely because they’ve been “drawing maps” since long before the final census numbers were out.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 8:31 am
There are NO maps except in the imaginations of some. Put up or shut up with your rumors.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 11:40 am
Re “Be real Paul:
Anyone who hasn’t been comatose for the last ten years knew what the numbers were going to look like. East Texas isn’t growing; West Texas is hemorrhaging population; the collar counties are exploding; the urban core is imploding. These trends have been established for forty years. Still, this is hardly enough information on which to base a map in the absence of precise census numbers. Who anticipated that Anchia would be 50,000 people short? Or that Branch and Hartnett would be looking at significant underages in the Republican heart of Dallas?
“Be real” wants to bring up the charge that “the Straus crowd was making redistricting threats during the run-up to session.” What, exactly, was the threat? Bryan Hughes said that the person who contacted him, now known to be Larry Phillips, told Hughes that he would be OK in redistricting but that Erwin Cain and Dan Flynn would not. This was not very bright of Phillips to say. It was not a threat directed at Hughes, but it was clear evidence that at least one Straus lieutenant was talking about redistricting months before Straus would be up for reelection.
Reply »
Pat Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Whoa there. The urban cores are not imploding. They’ve just run out of available land to build new houses and highways. Its hard to increase your population when the supply of available housing and transportation is fixed. Despite the low growth rate, I think Dallas has done a darned good job of spurring “building up” rather than “building out.”
Reply »
Spiro Eagleton says:
I think Rep. Solomons is incorrect. The Hispanic population is growing and getting rid of an Hispanic district would be a clear violation, but the black population has not been growing and therefore drawing two black majority districts together does not violate the act. Just watch what happens in MO and OH this year where you will have black inner city districts drawn together with close-in suburban districts. In OH Kucinich is likely to be paired with Fudge and in MO Clay will be put in with Carnahan. What happens when the higher turnout from the old suburban part of the district causes the black candidates to lose? It’ll be ugly.
Reply »
KB Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 9:03 am
The black population in Dallas County grew at 17.23 percent, compared with the total population growth of 6.73 percent in the county. So it may not be on par with the rest of the state, but it far outpaces the growth of the county (the white population actually shrank). The GOP is not going to be able to justify eliminating a black-majority district, especially to a Democratic DOJ.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 11:21 am
Re Spiro Eagleton, aove: Missouri and Ohio are not subject to the Voting Rights Act.
Reply »
Spiro Eagleton Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 1:38 pm
That just proves how absurd the VRA is. Missouri was as racist and segregated as any state in the nation. Blacks at Sportsman’s Park had to sit in separate sections, St. Louis was (and still is) a very segregated city along racial lines. Its time to get rid of that outdated legislation.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
Spiro stop using reason! It’s still 1950 in America, how dare you look at a calendar. If a person’s skin has a slightly higher degree of pigment in it than another person they have NO chance of succeeding or having representation in this country. Just ask Obama.
bsmith says:
I sort of agree with Spiro Eagleton, but instead of drawing two black majority districts together, they could draw Anchia in with one of the black majority districts. This addresses the high hispanic growth and the flat african-american growth.
Reply »
paulburka Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 11:42 am
African-American growth in Dallas (17.3%) was almost on a par with the state’s growth as a whole (20.6%).
Reply »
asmith says:
I don’t think the GOP will want to draw a suburban Democratic district in northeast Dallas, though one could be drawn. I think there’s a better chance of putting Grand Prairie and hispanic parts of Irving together as a new D-leaning hispanic district. I still think they will pair 2 pairs of Republicans or crack one GOP district like 107 and pair two incumbents in another district.
Spiro,
The black population has been growing in the southern suburbs in HD109 with residents leaving oak cliff and south Dallas. I don’t think MO is a VRA state, I know Ohio isn’t. I remember in 2001 here in Texas when the LRB paired Reps Terri Hodge an african american, and Dale Tillery an anglo in a district Terri could win.
Reply »
Pat Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 4:07 pm
I haven’t seen the 2010 numbers, but suburban growth south of the Trinity has been impressive. Cedar Hill should at least be close to majority-minority if its not already. It’ll be a tough area for the Republicans to draw around.
Reply »
No reason to deal says:
“Why do democrats always assume that all blacks and mexicans consider themselves as minorities/democrats/victims and vote that way?”
It isn’t a matter of “all” just a significant majority. Hispanics were beginning to lean Republican under Bush, but that of course has changed as Republicans vilify Mexicans.
Reply »
Willie says:
Maybe it’s just me, but does anyone else find it in any respect distasteful that in 2011 we still have the Voting Rights Act mandating that district lines be drawn in such a way that any racial group is assured of electing one of their own? Something about that notion just really seems sort of “undemocratic” if you ask me. Maybe if we ever get out from under that stupid law, the legislature could stop all the silly gerrymandering and draw some district lines that were rational and bear some actual relation to geographic reality.
Reply »
anita Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 10:27 am
We have the “stupid” Voting Rights Act because Jim Crow was inherently “undemocratic”. Do we still need it — why don’t you ask the African Americans who were not allowed to register to vote in our own Waller County if we still need it? I suspect they will tell you that it’s not a stupid law, nor are the Constitutional protections that “conservatives” seem to care little for.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 12:06 pm
Right, because having to ask for the imprimatur of a DOJ that decided not to prosecute Black Panthers standing outside a polling place intimidating white voters is so assuring on racial matters.
Reply »
anita Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
C’mon. Turn off FOX for a few minutes and think for yourself.
Anonymous Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 1:52 pm
Do you really want these people thinking for themselves??? If they had to think to breathe, they’d be dead in 15 seconds.
checking in says:
If all of the house seats in Dallas were held by minorities except for one, would the one non-minority lose his seat by default?
Reply »
JoeBlow says:
“Maybe if we ever get out from under that stupid law, the legislature could stop all the silly gerrymandering and draw some district lines that were rational and bear some actual relation to geographic reality.” Willie
I agree it’s bad policy to have districts drawn for the sole purpose of assuring a particular race will be able to elected a member, but don’t kid yourself that it would en gerrymandering to get rid of the VRA. Instead, it would just be pure unadulterated political gerrymandering, which coincidentally, wouldn’t look much different (even without the VRA, Republicans would like to push as many minorities into certain districts as possible to consolidate the Democrats and force them into electing weak candidates).
Reply »
Brown Bess says:
Yeah that Voting Rights Act thing is now completely obsolete, just like it was in 2003, oh wait…..
Reply »
paulburka says:
I’m ambivalent about the Voting Rights Act. It was groundbreaking legislation in 1965, when election officials in the South were doing their best to prevent blacks from voting. My concern today is that I don’t think any group of citizens should be guaranteed a safe seat for one of their own. I would go so far as to say that it is a disincentive to voting. Why go to the polls when you know your representative is sure to be reelected and doesn’t even have an opponent? Or, as too often happens in Hispanic districts, the race comes down to one clan against another. In fact, the Voting Rights Act today mainly benefits the Republican party. It was extended during the Reagan presidency because Republicans figured out that it kills the Democrats. It provides safe seats for African Americans and Hispanics and leaves white urban Democrats without a constituency.
Reply »
Spiro Eagleton Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 1:43 pm
Good point. The really dirty secret is that Republicans were all for creating minority-majority districts because it allows the packing of solidly Democratic votes and hurts them in other districts. So, you get your black or Latino rep, but the other two or three neighboring districts elect a conservative Republican. This was bad for Democrats and worse for democracy.
I love looking at TN where liberal blacks are still upset that they have no US Congressman of their skin color and Memphis is represented by a white Jewish man that some allege is homosexual. Its all just absurd.
Reply »
JohnBernardBooks says:
comeon dems surely you have something else besides “you’re a racist/homophobe/hater” everytime someone disagrees with bad policies. Right?
I’m gonna predict that democrats playing the race card so often will be old news come 2012.
Reply »
Anonymous Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Let the clichéathon begin.
Reply »
anita Reply:
February 25th, 2011 at 4:52 pm
Just for the record, JBB — are you proclaiming the Voting Rights Act to be “bad policy”?
Reply »
Mike O says:
The interesting fight this year- as in every previous redistricting year- the Democrats try to thin out the minority populations to maximize the number of districts they can capture, while the GOP works to concentrate minorities in districts- which generally results in more minorities having a shot at getting elected. So who is serving minority interests here?
Reply »
retrocon says:
The two operative sections of the VRA are Section 2 (no packing or cracking) and Section 5 (no retrogression). Section 5 applies to a limited number of select jurisdictions — like all of Texas. Section 2 applies to ALL states.
In Dallas, the question will be can the districts STILL BE DRAWN to support four African-American districts? I believe they can be drawn, and will thus be protected.
Reply »
asmith says:
My guess is Yvonne Davis will pick up parts of Grand Prairie to add to her district. Giddings doesn’t need population. Caraway picks up areas by Carter HS along I-20 and I-35, and Eric Johnson will move north to pick up the casa view/casa linda area, and parts of mesquite. He’ll gain more hispanics by going further into east dallas but he’ll still be safe in a D primary.
Reply »