Buried in the four-inch stack of amendments to the house budget bill is a subtly crafted ambush on the Public Integrity Unit of the Travis County District Attorney’s office. This is the outfit that investigates corruption cases involving public officials, the most famous of which in recent memory was Ronnie Earle’s dogged pursuit of Tom Delay in the TRMPAC case. Earle has moved on, but Republicans haven’t forgiven or forgotten. This session, Arlington Republican Bill Zedler filed a bill (HB 1928) seeking to move the unit out of the Travis County D.A.’s office and into the Attorney General’s office, which is to say, out of Democratic control and into Republican-held territory. Similar efforts in previous sessions went nowhere, and Zedler’s bill has yet to get a hearing.

But he may not need one to get the revenge Republicans have been seeking. That’s because one of Zedler’s proposed HB 1 amendments, a seemingly simple half-page item (on page 251 of the stack) moving funding for the Public Integrity Unit over to the AG’s office, contains what appears to be a cleverly couched sneak attack. (more…)

Tagged: bill zedler, budget, HB 1, state budget

Your daily space queen video! It’s worth clicking on just to see what I look like when I forget to sit on a telephone book.

Paul Burka on the secret speaker’s ballot, and why he was for it before he he was against it. (Flip flopper.)

Honorably mentioned: Speaker Craddick, SREC, John Sharp, Bill White, Roger Williams, Florence Shapiro, Kay Granger, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Charlie Geren, Bill Zedler, Dan Flynn, Pete Sessions

Tagged: bill white, bill zedler, Charlie Geren, dan flynn, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Florence Shapiro, John Sharp, Kay Granger, paul burka, pete sessions, Roger Williams, secret ballot, speaker craddick, srec

I was in touch yesterday with two people who were watching the SREC meeting–in particular, the discussion of the resolution concerning the speaker’s race. The advocates of the resolution were careful to present it as a neutral action that did not take sides in the speaker’s race. However, two pro-Craddick legislators showed up at the meeting and spoke about the resolution–Bill Zedler and Dan Flynn. Both are publicly committed to Craddick, though Zedler will not be able to vote for speaker, having lost his race for reelection. Here is the report that I received: “Zedler spoke at the start of the meeting and endorsed the resolution, attacking what he viewed to be wayward Republicans [not a verbatim who did not promote true Republican principles [not his precise words]. Flynn made similar comments after the Resolution was adopted, saying that pro-life and pro-family achievements accomplished the past several years would be rolled back under a liberal speaker and that there was only one man the Congressional delegation wanted as speaker for Redistricting. Neither (that I can recall) ever mentioned Craddick by name.”

This is the text of the resolution:

Resolution Supporting Election of a Republican Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives

WHEREAS, a primary function of the Republican Party of Texas is to elect candidates that embrace the principles articulated by the Republican Party of Texas Platform and to enact those principles legislatively;

WHEREAS, the success of the advancement of Republican principles in Texas depends heavily upon having a Republican Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives elected by a majority of the 76 members of the Republican House Caucus; now, therefore, be it

RESOLVED, that the Republican Party of Texas calls upon Republican members of the Texas House of Representatives to only support for election, and to elect, a Republican as Speaker of the Texas House who gains the support and vote of the majority of Republican House Members; and, be it further

RESOLVED, that the Republican Party of Texas calls upon Republican members of the Texas House of Representatives to hold all votes for Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives by open, public ballot; and, be it further

RESOLVED, that a copy of this resolution be delivered by electronic mail to each Republican member of the Texas House of Representatives and posted on the Republican Party of Texas website.

* * * *

This commentary was posted to the Lone Star Report web site, and I appreciate receiving a copy:

We just got a call from SREC Member Jason Moore of Odessa (Senate District 31). He was one of the three lead authors of the resolution. He told LSR that none of the authors were asked to bring the resolution by any sitting legislator and that they did it on their own initaitive. He said that he, Russ Duerstine of San Angelo (Senate District 28) and Brian Russell of Austin (Senate District 14) are the lead authors of the resolution.

“The three of us who came up with this resolution specifically talked with our fellow SREC members that we wanted the resolution to be member-neutral,” Moore said. “We don’t want to cram any specific candidate down the members’ throats.”

Moore also added that he is shocked that only Tom Craddick has stated publicly his support for an open and transparent speaker ballot. “It’s a sad commentary on our political process that only one of the Republican candidates for speaker to date has publicly proclaimed his support for openness and transparency in the way the House elects its leader,” Moore added.

* * * *

Was the resolution member-neutral? The words “Tom Craddick” do not appear in it, but the criterion that Republican members of the House of Representatives [should] “only support for election … a Republican as Speaker of the Texas House who gains the support and vote of the majority of Republican House Members” clearly favors Craddick at the present time, since he has been gathering pledges for some time and, I reckon, has at least 39 GOP pleges, or a majority of the 76-member majority. Of course, that could change, if members perceive that Craddick has stalled out and can’t get to 76 votes overall. The requirement of an open and transparent ballot, whatever may be its merits, also favors Craddick, because it opens the door to intimidation and retaliation.

One other point: Flynn’s comment that members of the congressional delegation prefer one man (obviously Craddick) to be in charge of redistricting is not germane. Congression redistricting is three years and two speaker’s races away. Think of all the impediments to getting a bill that favors Republicans through both houses and onto the governor’s desk for his (or her!) signature. Democrats could have a majority of the House. The Senate Democrats could block the bill under the two-thirds rule. A Democratic governor could veto the bill. The Obama Justice Department could scotch it. And the federal courts will have their say as well. Tom Craddick will not be much of a factor, whether he is speaker or not.

Tagged: bill zedler, dan flynn, speaker's rac, srec, tom craddick

As everyone knows by now, Republicans have lost 12 seats since Craddick became speaker. Eight of these losses occurred in the last two elections. The main reason for these losses was not Craddick; it was George W. Bush. But I do think that a close scrutiny of seats won and lost would allocate little credit to Craddick for the three victories Republicans posted, and a considerable amount of the blame to Craddick for the six defeats suffered.

Craddick deserves credit for one of the three seats the R’s picked up. He recruited Todd Hunter to run against Juan Garcia. Hunter ran a lousy campaign, but he was a credible name on the ballot. Once Hunter was in the race, the outcome was foreordained. This was an overwhelmingly Republican district. The same predestination existed in Fort Worth. Democrat Dan Barrett had won a special election against Mark Shelton, but he didn’t have a prayer in a general election. Ditto in the LaGrange-Bastrop district, where Republican Tim Kleinschmidt had been running to succeed Robbie Cook for more than two years. He easily defeated Democrat Donnie Dippel. The Democrats’ unwarranted optimism in these races provided an illusion that they were close. As we saw on election night, they weren’t.

What about the six seats in which Republicans lost to Democrats? Here I think Craddick should shoulder some of the blame. His statement that he had nothing to do with the refurbishing of the House lounge was mendacious. Zedler’s opponent made it a campaign issue because Zedler is on House Administration. Goolsby’s opponent likewise turned it into campaign ammo. Craddick should be accountable for these losses. Bryan Daniel’s loss to Diana Maldonado also deserves some scrutiny. I think Craddick backed the wrong guy in the primary. Dee Hobbs had deeper roots in the community than Daniel. He led a four-candidate field in the primary. He had the endorsement of the third-place finisher. Daniel was slicker, but he wasn’t a good fit for the district. Hobbs had the better chance to hold the seat. A similar situation occurred in Dallas County, where Mike Anderson took on incumbent Thomas Latham. Craddick backed Anderson, who had a lot of baggage. I think Latham could have held that seat. Anderson couldn’t do it. Jim Murphy’s loss to Kristi Thibaut in Harris County was mainly due to demographic change. Murphy ran hard, but the numbers were against him, and the D’s had a big early vote. The sixth seat lost by Republicans is 100% due to Craddick. This was the El Paso seat held by Pat Haggerty. As everyone remembers, Craddick recruited Dee Margo to take out Haggerty, a longtime Craddick nemesis, in the Republican primary. But Democrat Joe Moody beat Margo. If Linda Harper-Brown loses her recount when the provisional ballots are counted, Haggerty’s lost seat will be the difference between a 76-74 Republican majority and a 75-75 tie. That bit of revenge Craddick took against Haggerty could turn out to be very costly. Moody defeated Margo, but Haggerty, an 18-year incumbent, would have been favored to hold the seat. I was told that a prominent El Paso leader tried to dissaude Rick Perry and Craddick from going after Haggerty in the primary, but to no avail. This loss was all due to Craddick’s thirst for vengeance. In five of the six seats Republicans lost—all except Murphy’s—Craddick deserves a considerable amount of the blame.

Tagged: bill zedler, dee margo, diana maldonado, juan garcia, linda harper-brown, Speaker race, Tim Kleinschmidt, todd hunter, tom craddick, tony goolsby

I learned today about a method of analyzing House races that may be able to predict winners (no warranties, expressed or implied) in close races for the Texas House of Representatives. The idea is to determine whether Democrats have a chance to win certain races, based on primary turnout of the two parties and Obama’s percentage in the presidential primary.

Take Michael “Tuffy” Hamilton.
Republican primary turnout in the district: 4,714 = 6.2% of registered voters
Democratic primary turnout in the district: 25,465 = 33.4% of registered voters

Looks pretty good for the Democrats, right?
But: only 22.9% of Democrats voted for Obama in the presidential primary
Conclusion: mostly white conservative voters. Hamilton wins.
(Hamilton is an icon in his community. We didn’t need a formula to tell us he is going to win.)

Zedler-Turner
R primary turnout (rounded) 9,600
D primary turnout (rounded) 16,900
Obama %: 61.6
Big trouble for Zedler

Barrett-Shelton
R primary turnout (rounded) 13,000
D primary turnout (rounded) 14,000
Obama % 52.
Too close to call

Goolsby-Kent
R primary turnout (rounded) 4,800
D primary turnout (rounded) 7,300
Obama % 57
Could be trouble

It doesn’t work for all districts. In Dan Branch’s district, R’s cast 5,300 primary votes, D’s 8,400. Obama got 53.5%. But some of those votes were from moderate/disillusioned R’s. Branch isn’t going to lose.

Anderson-Miklos
R primary turnout (rounded) 7,500
D primary turnout (rounded) 8,800
Obama %: 55
Could be trouble

Tagged: bill zedler, dan branch, michael tuffy hamilton, Texas house, turner