As the ranks of Republican candidates thin with Herman Cain’s decision to suspend his campaign, the remaining serious candidates are reduced to three: Romney, Gingrich, and Perry. No, I haven’t forgotten Ron Paul. I just dismiss him as a contender. He can get his share of the votes, but he cannot be the nominee. And he is actually helping Perry by running attack ads against Gingrich in Iowa; this one is a shorter version of the web ad that attracted so much attention a week or so back.

Sooner or later–probably the former–the national media is going to start digging into Gingrich’s past, and they will uncover a mother lode of material. At that point, the media become Perry’s new best friend, and Gingrich will began to fall in the polls. Then Republican field will narrow to Romney vs. Perry. In that scenario, it’s advantage Perry. Don’t write him off yet.

Tagged: Herman Cain, Iowa, newt gingrich, rick perry, ron paul

Politico’s Ben Smith noted yesterday that Rick Perry’s Facebook page appeals to Cain voters to switch their allegiance to Perry in the wake of Cain’s suspension of his presidential campaign. There is a photo of Cain and Perry, with the phrase “Both Washington Outsiders” between them.

Far be it from me to say that this ploy won’t work, but … when the sexual harassment allegations against Cain first surfaced, who was it that the Cain team blamed for the revelations? Oh, yes. It was the Perry campaign. And wasn’t it Cain who took umbrage at the name painted on the rock at Perry’s hunting camp, calling it “insensitive.” No love lost there.

Tagged: Herman Cain, rick perry

GOP Presidential race

Gingrich 28

Cain 25

Romney 18

Perry 6

Bachman/Paul 5

Huntsman 3

* * * *

Tweets by PPP about Perry:

* 67% of voters nationally now view Rick Perry unfavorably- pretty amazing figure

* Perry favorability is 34/48 with California GOP voters…getting towards being under water everywhere

* Perry now just flat unpopular with GOP voters- 35/49 fav down 18 pts from 46/42 in October

* Rick Perry has dropped from 14% in October to only 6%. Bigger decline than Cain has seen

I have refrained from saying Perry is finished. But the fact is, there is no good news. Well, I take it back: He still has a lot of money, but it is hard to see how he can continue to raise funds on the basis of his current numbers. He is pinning his hopes on finishing a decent third in Iowa, but with Cain holding on and Newt ascendant, it looks like a battle between Perry and Romney for third — if he doesn’t get overtaken by Ron Paul or Bachman, both of whom have followers in Iowa too. Perry is targeting the evangelical vote, although his direct mail pieces seemed pretty blah to me. The use of mailers indicates that the Perry campaign has been reduced to using strategies like direct mail that they don’t even believe in. Even his famous luck has deserted him; the expected Cain collapse hasn’t occurred. This is a complete fiasco. And after Iowa is New Hampshire, which will be worse for Perry than Iowa. Get the forks out.

Tagged: Herman Cain, Iowa, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, ron paul

These are the latest available polls in key states for the Republican primary:

U.S. Republican Primary (Rasmussen) 11/2

Cain 26%

Romney 23%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 8%

Iowa  Caucus (Insider Advantage) 11/6

Cain 30%

Romney 15%

Gingrich 12%

Paul 9%

Bachmann 8%

Perry 6%

Santorum 2%

Huntsman 2%

Iowa Caucus (Des Moines Register) 10/23 – 10/26

Cain 27%

Romney 22%

Paul 11%

Gingrich 9%

Bachman 7%

Perry 7%

Santorum 3%

Huntsman 1%

New Hampshire Primary (Rasmussen 10/27)

Romney 41%

Cain 17%

Paul 11%%

Gingrich 6%

Huntsman 6%

Perry 4%

Bachmann 3%

Santorum 1%

South Carolina Primary (Rasmussen) 11/1

Cain 33%

Romney 23%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 9%

Florida Primary (Suffolk/7 News) 10/26 – 10/30

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 11%

Perry 9%

Florida Primary (Quinnipiac) 10/25 – 10/31

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 7%

Florida Primary (Suffolk/Ch 7) 10/26 – 10/30

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 11%

Perry 9%

Paul 5%

Bachmann 2%

Santorum 1%

Huntsman 1%

Tagged: Herman Cain, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, rick perry, Rick Santorum, ron paul

Could Rick Perry’s stunning loss of the Florida straw poll have been averted? Possibly. The question here is whether the Perry camp was so overconfident that it scheduled him to go to a similar straw poll in Michigan without addressing the delegates in Florida. At the times, Perry and Romney were tied in Florida voting with 25% each. Cain was lagging with 5%. Florida is a much more important state than Michigan. Perry may have erred by foregoing the opportunity to lobby for votes. As it turned out, Cain won by such a large margin–37% to 15% over Perry and 14% over Romney–that Perry’s travels didn’t really affect the outcome. Romney easily won the Michigan straw poll, as expected.

It is hard to imagine Cain as a serious contender for president. Nevertheless, Perry’s success depends to some extent on his ability to reduce the number of major candidates so that he can go head to head with Romney, his major tormentor. So far, not only has he failed to break away from the pack, but one member of the pack has zoomed past him, for the time being. One has to wonder whether Perry’s stumbles have been noticed by Sarah Palin, who can’t seem to make up her mind whether she wants to be in the game or not.

Tagged: Herman Cain, republican presidential primary, rick perry

No surprise here. A WMUR/Granite State poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, shows the former Massachusetts governor far in front, Bachmann running second, and everyone else in single digits. The date of the poll was not reported.

The poll results (773 likely Republican primary voters, MOE +/- 3/5%):

Romney 35%

Bachmann 12%

Ron Paul 7%

Rudy Giuliani 7%

Perry 4%

Palin 3%

Pawlenty 3%

Huntsman 2%

Cain 2%

Gingrich 1%

Gary Johnson, Buddy Roemer, Rick Santorum < 1%

I trust that readers do not have to be reminded that one of New Hampshire’s leading political operatives is Dave Carney, who is in the Perry camp.

Doug Macatonis, who posted the poll results on the Website “Outside the Beltway,” closes with this observation: “Not much to say here other than one wonders if anyone will seriously contest New Hampshire.”

Tagged: dave carney, Herman Cain, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, rick perry, ron paul, Rudy Giuliani, tim pawlenty