This appointment had been rumored for some time, so it was hardly a surprise. Michael Williams has a slim history in the education area, except for serving in the Department of Education during the George H. W. Bush administration and serving on the board of a Catholic school. He faces a steep learning curve in a Texas Education Agency that is a stripped-down version of what it used to be, going into a session that has a long list of education issues on the table.

One of the most important items on the agenda is whether testing is out of control. Perry is a strong advocate of accountability, which is based upon standardized tests. The Texas Association of Business, under Bill Hammond, is another advocate. Some business groups say that they won’t support more funding for education if the accountability system is weakened. I believe that this issue will come up for a vote this session, and if it does, I think Hammond may lose. Outgoing commissioner Robert Scott turned against standardized testing last session, and many parents have turned against it–the mantra being that there is too much “teaching to the test”–and it’s going to be hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube. (You can read my August column about Scott’s departure and his view of testing here.) Williams is also going to find himself in the middle of a big fight over school vouchers. He is there to serve the governor, not the schools.

Perry has all but officially announced for governor in 2014.  That race won’t be a cinch given that his negatives are sky high, but it could shut the door on Greg Abbott and the rest of the would-be field. It also means his sights are really set on 2016, when Obama’s second term would expire, and Romney would be but a memory. (I’m not calling the presidential race for Obama, just putting the pieces of the puzzle together for what Perry needs to happen.) Perry is about to become Barack Obama’s biggest fan, for if Romney wins the presidency, all of Perry’s efforts will go for naught. The looming voucher fight is a signal that Perry will turn even harder to the right as he prepares for another race. Next up after vouchers: changing ERS from a defined benefit plan to a defined contribution plan.

One fly in that ointment is that the 2016 Republican field will be much stronger than the current one (Ryan, Rubio, Jeb Bush, Jindal, Daniels, Christie), and Perry still has plenty of scars and YouTube moments that voters are going to remember. I don’t expect Michael Williams to set the world on fire as education commissioner, but he is very popular and very well known in Republican circles and would be an asset to Perry as a surrogate in a presidential campaign.

Tagged: michael williams

Not Tom. His daughter Christi. Rick Perry has a vacancy to fill, following the resignation of Michael Williams in April. (Williams, through his consultant, had previously insisted to me that he was unequivocally running for the U.S. Senate; he now has his sights set on one of the 17 or so new congressional districts in Travis County.) I’m told that a relative of Jose Aliseda is also a possibility. I have also heard that if Christi doesn’t get the appointment, she may run against whoever does get it.

Tagged: christi craddick, michael williams, railroad commission, tom craddick

The Morning News reports that the Texas congressman is considering a run for the Senate. [I am having trouble with the link.] Paul is not going to be able to resist the chance to serve in the Senate alongside his son. If he runs, who is going to beat him? The guy with the most money and name ID is Dewhurst, but he doesn’t have a constituency. He is the essence of an establishment Republican. Roger Williams has the same problem. The remaining hopefuls are going to have to compete for the same constituencies that will gravitate to Paul — the Tea Party, the rurals, and the old white guys. Paul can raise money nationally. He has been doing it for years. Elizabeth Ames Jones has nowhere to go. Michael Williams might get some traction because he has Tea Party support. Ted Cruz has never run a race.

The problem with having Ron Paul represent Texas in the United States Senate is that Paul doesn’t chase after federal money. It’s against his principles. Forget money for NASA, for highways, for universities, for military bases. He will cost Texas hundreds of millions of dollars in foregone federal aid. Paul will have none of it. He is a unique type of politician. He represents principles rather than people. If he chooses to run, he will be very difficult to defeat. And Texas will never get back a dime of the money its taxpayers send to Washington.

Tagged: david dewhurst, Elizabeth Ames Jones, michael williams, Roger Williams, ron paul, Ted Cruz

A couple of weeks ago I questioned in this space whether Medina might enter the Senate race if Hutchison resigns her seat after the primary or the runoff? Apparently someone else was thinking the same thing. The analysis that follows was sent to me by someone who is well known to readers of this blog, someone with SO license plates. The analysis picks up below the asterisks:

* * * *

I just read your comment about Medina running for Kay’s seat, if it ever opens up. I [have] speculated on the same thing. I have been trying to figure her reason to run in the R primary. It doesn’t make sense for her. Here is why:

1. If she really cared about her issues she would have run as an Indy or a Libertarian so she would be in the race all the way into the fall. She would then have time to build her name and would get to debate on the big stage in the general election.

2. If she actually thought she had a chance to win the R primary, or make the run-off she would not turn off the R votes by advocating legalizing drugs or saying she will not guarantee she will support the primary winner in Nov and may support a third party candidate.

So, what is her plan. Let’s go back to point 1. If she was running as an Independent or Libertarian it would be difficult to also run in a special election for Senator, and depending on when the election was actually held, she might not be legally able to do so. Secondly, if she had not run in R primary no one would know her anyway. My thesis.

She doesn’t care if some Republicans don’t like her drug stand or that she will not support Perry or Hutchinson in November. She is running in the Republican primary to build name I.D. and build support for a run in the special election for Kay’s seat. Once March 2 passes she will be free to run for the Senate (providing Kay steps down).

What is her chance of making that run-off ? Still a long shot, but she will have a shot, especially if she surprises and gets 12-18% in the primary.

My analysis of the numbers in a crowded special election field:
–Sharp and all Ds get 35%
–If Medina keeps her base and adds a few points she is 15-20% (if she does well in the primary)
–That leaves 50-55% to be split between 6 to 10 Republicans
–Dewhurst, Shapiro, Williams, Williams, Jones, all of whom have indicated they will run. You can be sure that there will be 2-4 more. Each one will pick up 3-5% points even for the bottom finishers. If you have, let’s say, 8 Republicans, can any of them get higher than her if she gets 18-20%? Dewhurst has the best chance, but with so many in the race each candidate will have their own base. making it harder for him to get 20%.

So, you could have a Medina-Sharp run-off if everything breaks her way. But three things have to happen:

(more…)

Tagged: david dewhurst, Debra Medina, John Sharp, kay bailey hutchison, michael williams, senate race

David Dewhurst’s committee assignments late Friday spotlighted the challenge this session presents for Florence Shapiro, whose interest in running for the U.S. Senate places her in perilous territory vis-a-vis the Texas Senate’s presiding officer, who likewise is considering a relocation to Washington. While Dewhurst’s committee assignments shifted authority from Shapiro to Judith Zaffirini for higher education issues, Shapiro’s remained chairman of the Senate’s Education committee. That gives her ample opportunity to build a statewide name for herself by:

1. Revisiting school finance. Shapiro has been working with Senate Finance Chair Steve Ogden to use $1.9 billion set aside in S.B. 1 to improve equity, reduce the Robin Hood effect on property-wealthy school districts and undo an obsolete “target revenue” provision creating pressure on districts to raise taxes. Both Shapiro and Ogden believe the devil this session won’t be in school finance details — they are confident they can pass a bill — but finding adequate money. Shapiro wants to up the ante to $3 billion for basic school funding.

2. Taking on the IRS to keep school construction costs cheap. Texas has hit an IRS-set limit on the school bonds it can back (thereby helping districts secure Triple-A ratings). Shapiro recently sent a letter to Texas’s D.C. delegation, noting that although the state passed legislation in 2007 ” to guarantee bonds up to 5 times the value of the Permanent School Fund, federal regulations limit this capacity to 2 1/2. As Texas has reached this capacity, the state may no longer provide for districts this cost saving measure.” Shapiro’s letter also noted that, while Congress is considering enormous stimulus spending, a simple change in the IRS rule would allow Texas school districts to easily finance badly needed construction projects. By pushing the issue, Shapiro stands to win big in the education community.

3. Proceeding with her bills, filed in November, to freeze higher ed tuition and soften the top ten percent rule. Zaffirini may be the higher ed committee chair, but Shapiro can still weigh in on high profile issues that resonate with voters.

History has not been kind to U.S. Senate candidates who lacked a statewide presence (See: Rick Noriega, Ron Kirk). That would seem to give an automatic advantage over Shapiro to statewide office holders like Railroad Commisioners Elizabeth Ames Jones and Michael Williams, former Secretary of State Roger Williams, as well as potential candidates Dewhurst and Attorney General Gregg Abbott. But Shapiro actually did quite well with her fund raising, last week reporting that she had $375,000 in the bank at year’s end, compared to Ames Jones’ $145,000, and Roger Williams’ $131,000 (of which he donated $100,000 himself). A spokesman for Michael Williams told the Houston Chronicle‘s R.G. Ratcliffe that Williams had not begun fund raising. (None of the Republicans matched Democratic Houston Mayor Bill White’s $640,000 — collected in less than a month from his candidate announcement.)

Shapiro has put together an impressive steering committee including Dallas cowboy legend Roger Staubach, 11 current members of the Texas Senate, former Lt. Gov. Bill Ratliff, retired energy executive Earle Nye. Note: In my original post, I opined the following: “If Dewhurst jumps in the race (and I think he will), he won’t be able to drop his own millions with impunity — as he has in previous state races. A federal rule specifies that if a candidate spends more than $800,000 of his or her own money on a campaign, then other candidates no longer have to abide in the federal $2,300 per individual contribution limit.” An alert reader informed me the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the “millionaire’s rule” last June. So much for an even playing field.

Since Dewhurst probably views her as a likely political opponent, the session will require some gentle navigation on Shapiro’s part. But given her early fund raising success and education community network, don’t count her out.

Tagged: bill ratliff, david dewhurst, earle nye, education, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Florence Shapiro, higher ed tuition, judith zaffirini, kay bailey hutchison, michael williams, roger staubach, Roger Williams, senate campaign, senate committee assignments, senate finance, Steve Ogden, top ten percent

UPDATE: I should have given Roger Williams credit in this writeup for his outstanding performance in the chair on the first day of the 2007 session, when he presided over the speaker’s race. He showed no favoritism and made a crucial ruling, overruling a point of order, that a secret ballot did not violate the constitution.

Williams is a former secretary of state who went on to serve as chairman of the Republican victory committee in the 2008 election cycle. He has been traveling around the state for many months on the speechifying circuit. Governor Perry has named him to several low-to-medium profile positions, involving economic development, the border, and base closures. While estimating personal wealth is a chancy business these days, it is safe to say that Williams, a Bush Pioneer fundraiser, did very well for himself as Metroplex automobile dealer, at least before the current economic crisis.

Secretary of State has generally been a political graveyard. Mark White, who served under Dolph Briscoe in the mid-seventies, was an exception; he moved on to become attorney general and governor. Jack Rains, who served under Clements, ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1990.

In addition to Democrat John Sharp, who has formally announced his candidacy, a long list of Republican hopefuls has surfaced. State senator Florence Shapiro has formed an exploratory committee; railroad commissioners Elizabeth Ames Jones and Michael Williams are interested; so is Fort Worth congresswoman Kay Granger and Ennis congressman Joe Barton; and the list of wannabes is certain to grow. You’d think this was a speaker’s race.

Roger Williams and I have had some long discussions — not much about politics, but a lot about minor league baseball. He was signed by the late Paul Richards, the onetime Chicago White Sox genius. He’s got a lot of great stories, and he tells them well. I’m a sucker for all things baseball, but I don’t necessarily come away from these chats thinking, “There goes a future United States senator.” Still, he has a name that is well known in the Metroplex and its suburbs, the biggest source of Republican votes in the state.

A special election for the Senate is the easiest route to political prominence. The whole battle is over name identification. Hutchison had a huge advantage in 1993 because she was a statewide officeholder (state treasurer) and was better known than her Democratic runoff rival, railroad commissioner Bob Krueger. A couple of members of Congress got in the race — Jack Fields and Barton — but someone who represents 1/32nd of Texas doesn’t have much chance against someone who represents 32/32nds. According to this standard, Ames Jones and Michael Williams ought to have the inside track. I’d put Roger Williams as #3. The second requirement, after name ID, is the ability to raise money. Here Roger Williams is #1.

Here’s more on the process of filling a Senate vacancy:

* The governor appoints a person to fill the vacancy temporarily. The appointee serves until a special election is held to serve the remainder of the six-year term, which, in Hutchison’s case, runs through the end of 2012.

* All candidates run in a single election; there is no party primary. However, the party affiliation of each candidate appears on the ballot. The top two candidates go into a runoff regardless of party affiliation and the winner serves out the term.

* The temporary appointee is eligible to run in the special election. The main barrier to entry is that a candidate must present a petition with 5,000 names.

* The election dates are fixed by the Texas Election Code. A special election must be held either on the second Saturday in May or on the first Tuesday following a Monday in November (general election day). However, an election cannot be held within 36 days of the date the vacancy occurs.

In effect, this means that if Hutchison resigns on or before April 3, 2009, the special election would be held on May 9, 2009. Here are the other dates:

* Hutchison resigns during the period April 4, 2009 – September 28, 2009: the special election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2009. Usually, constitutional amendments are the only statewide matter on the ballot in November of odd-numbered years.

* Hutchison resigns during the period September 29, 2009 – April 2, 2010: the special election will be held on Saturday, May 8, 2010.

* Hutchison resigns during the period April 3, 2010 – September 26, 2010: the special election will be held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010.

* Hutchison resigns during the period September 27, 2010 – April 8, 2011: the special election will be held on Saturday, May 14, 2011.

* Hutchison resigns during the period April 3, 2010 – September 26, 2010: the special election will be held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 (the same day as the general election for the 2010 governor’s race).

* Hutchison resigns during the period September 27, 2010 – April 8, 2011: the special election will be held on Saturday, May 14, 2011.

Senator Hutchison told me in an interview that she might not resign at all, but if she does resign, the timing would probably be “late next year.” That would put the special election for Senate on Saturday, May 8, 2010.

Tagged: clements, dolph briscoe, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Florence Shapiro, jack rains, joe barton, John Sharp, kay bailey hutchison, Kay Granger, mark white, michael williams, rick perry, Roger Williams, secretary of state, senate seat, special election

The former state comptroller announced his candidacy today. He does not plan to form an exploratory committee but will begin raising money immediately.

This will be Sharp’s second bite at the Senate apple. In 1992, when Lloyd Bentsen resigned his seat to become Secretary of the Treasury in the first Clinton Administration, he was one of three prominent candidates to fill the vacancy. The others were Henry Cisneros and Houston congressman Mike Andrews. None of them got the appointment. Revelations of an extra-marital affair ruined Cisneros’s chances. Andrews, as I recall, was unacceptable to organized labor. And Sharp was, and is, pro-life and Richards could not bring herself to appoint a pro-life senator. So she ended up appointing railroad commissioner Bob Krueger, who didn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of beating Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Sharp has run twice for lieutenant governor since then: in 1998 against Rick Perry, and again in 2002 against David Dewhurst. Readers are entitled to know that Sharp thinks that I don’t like him, which is not true. He and I got crosswise because I picked him to lose both races, and he has blamed me for both defeats on the grounds that the predictions made it more difficult for him to raise money. I regard Sharp as a first-rate public servant who, to his misfortune, doesn’t run very good races. In the 1998 race, Sharp had a killer ad against Perry—as I recall, it had a Texas Ranger saying that Perry was soft on crime—and unaccountably took it off the air toward the end of the campaign.

I thought Perry would win that race because Bush was at the height of his popularity and I thought the governor would have enough coattails to bring Perry over the finish line. In fact, Bush polled three-quarters of a million votes more than Perry, and Perry barely won, 50.04% to 48.19%. Perry has always resented Karl Rove since that race, because Rove wanted to Bush to carry El Paso, which meant turning out Hispanic voters who would vote for Bush and Sharp. Bush did carry El Paso and used his appeal to Hispanic voters to bolster his presidential candidacy. Others would say, however, that Sharp would have defeated Perry but for a late $1.1 million loan to Perry from James Leininger.

Four years later Sharp tried again. This time I was sure he would lose. By 2002, it was hard for Democrats to raise money, and Dewhurst’s resources were unlimited. Dewhurst could start early, establish his name ID and go negative against Sharp, and there would be no way Sharp could catch up. He had to hoard his money until the end, and he couldn’t win. As it turned out, 2002 was the high point for Republicans in Texas. By the next general election campaign, in 2006, Perry was running for reelection as governor, and the Democrats’ fortunes were at a low point.

Even so, Sharp might have beaten Perry in a head-to-head race, but Perry shrewdly asked Sharp, a former Aggie buddy of Perry’s, to help him fix the school finance system, which the Texas Supreme Court had declared relied on local property taxes to a degree that made the system unconstitutional. Sharp agreed to head the committee that came up with the new business tax. By giving Perry cover, Sharp infuriated many Democrats, who wanted to blame Perry for the unpopular tax. Sharp has always seemed to be off in his timing. He runs when things are bleak for Democrats and doesn’t run when there is an opening. (Sentences like this one explain why he doesn’t like me.)

So here we go again. Sharp is running for a Senate seat which Hutchison will likely vacate around a year from now. Perry will be able to appoint Hutchison’s successor, who will have the advantage of incumbency. The appointee will have to run in a special session two months after the vacancy occurs. This race could draw some people with large bank accounts: Dewhurst again, former Secretary of State Roger Williams, and, on the Democratic side, Houston mayor Bill White, who is term limited in 2009.

Sharp’s big shortcoming has been his inability to raise the kind of money he needs for a statewide race. Nobody doubts his ability to do the job. Sharp is gambling that, by starting early, he will be able to raise the money he needs to take on the boys with the fat wallets. I am still skeptical. He could end up in a special election with the likes of Dewhurst, Roger Williams, Michael Williams (the railroad commissioner), and Bill White, and I am only halfway through the list of names known to be interested in the race. Because of his alliance with Perry in 2006, many Democrats do not look upon him with favor.

I can’t see him beating Bill White. Sharp is a two-time loser with business-tax and pro-life baggage. Sharp’s best chance is that White will run for governor instead of senator (but why would he do that when a Senate seat is open?). If White decides to retire from electoral politics, then Sharp still faces the obstacle of trying to defeat a well heeled Republican.

I do think Sharp has been very savvy about the way he has played the game so far. He has taken his candidacy to Washington, where he can make the case to Senate Democrats that he can win the seat, and depending on the twists and turns of politics in an Obama presidency, deliver the D’s that coveted 60th Senate seat. The national D’s have oodles of money to spend on Senate races. They wouldn’t spend it on Rick Noriega, but they might spend it on Sharp. (The business tax fight is of little interest to national Democrats, though it does loom large with some Texas D’s.)

So Sharp might be well financed, for once. The question is whether his name still energizes Texas Democrats. Some, yes. He has always run well among Hispanics. But he has to be counting on Texas turning blue by 2010, and that is not a good bet. Democrats seeking statewide offices ran worse in 2008 than their counterparts did in 2006. Unfortunately for Sharp, he reached the apex of his political career ten years ago, just as the Republicans were reaching their high point in Texas.

Tagged: bill white, bob krueger, david dewhurst, henry cisneros, james leininger, John Sharp, karl rove, kay bailey hutchison, lloyd bentsen, michael williams, mike andrews, rick noriega, rick perry, Roger Williams, senate race