GOP Presidential race

Gingrich 28

Cain 25

Romney 18

Perry 6

Bachman/Paul 5

Huntsman 3

* * * *

Tweets by PPP about Perry:

* 67% of voters nationally now view Rick Perry unfavorably- pretty amazing figure

* Perry favorability is 34/48 with California GOP voters…getting towards being under water everywhere

* Perry now just flat unpopular with GOP voters- 35/49 fav down 18 pts from 46/42 in October

* Rick Perry has dropped from 14% in October to only 6%. Bigger decline than Cain has seen

I have refrained from saying Perry is finished. But the fact is, there is no good news. Well, I take it back: He still has a lot of money, but it is hard to see how he can continue to raise funds on the basis of his current numbers. He is pinning his hopes on finishing a decent third in Iowa, but with Cain holding on and Newt ascendant, it looks like a battle between Perry and Romney for third — if he doesn’t get overtaken by Ron Paul or Bachman, both of whom have followers in Iowa too. Perry is targeting the evangelical vote, although his direct mail pieces seemed pretty blah to me. The use of mailers indicates that the Perry campaign has been reduced to using strategies like direct mail that they don’t even believe in. Even his famous luck has deserted him; the expected Cain collapse hasn’t occurred. This is a complete fiasco. And after Iowa is New Hampshire, which will be worse for Perry than Iowa. Get the forks out.

Tagged: Herman Cain, Iowa, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, ron paul

These are the latest available polls in key states for the Republican primary:

U.S. Republican Primary (Rasmussen) 11/2

Cain 26%

Romney 23%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 8%

Iowa  Caucus (Insider Advantage) 11/6

Cain 30%

Romney 15%

Gingrich 12%

Paul 9%

Bachmann 8%

Perry 6%

Santorum 2%

Huntsman 2%

Iowa Caucus (Des Moines Register) 10/23 – 10/26

Cain 27%

Romney 22%

Paul 11%

Gingrich 9%

Bachman 7%

Perry 7%

Santorum 3%

Huntsman 1%

New Hampshire Primary (Rasmussen 10/27)

Romney 41%

Cain 17%

Paul 11%%

Gingrich 6%

Huntsman 6%

Perry 4%

Bachmann 3%

Santorum 1%

South Carolina Primary (Rasmussen) 11/1

Cain 33%

Romney 23%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 9%

Florida Primary (Suffolk/7 News) 10/26 – 10/30

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 11%

Perry 9%

Florida Primary (Quinnipiac) 10/25 – 10/31

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 7%

Florida Primary (Suffolk/Ch 7) 10/26 – 10/30

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 11%

Perry 9%

Paul 5%

Bachmann 2%

Santorum 1%

Huntsman 1%

Tagged: Herman Cain, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, rick perry, Rick Santorum, ron paul

Perry has taken a lot of hits this week, perhaps the hardest of which came from GOP rival John Huntsman. Most of them won’t matter. Why? Because the criticism of Perry occurred in the context of a Republican primary race, which Perry is well situated to win. He passed Romney and Bachmann in the polls before he was officially a candidate. Bachmann has no chance to beat Perry, although she could slow him down in Iowa. Romney can still win if he can persuade voters that Perry is not electable. Most of Perry’s off-the-kuff commentary would be problematical only in a general election context.

Tagged: Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, rick perry

A phenomenal showing by Perry, who has done nothing more than announce his candidacy and press the flesh in three venues. The impending battle for Tea Party support between Perry and Bachmann may already be over. Romney has been running for four years and is hardly any better off than he was when he left the race in 2008. Who is going to beat this guy?

I know that there is a long way to go, and Perry’s campaign is far from a polished operation at this point. He doesn’t even have a headquarters. Still, you could hardly imagine a better start.

I noticed this comment in Rasmussen’s writeup on the poll: “Governor Perry is enjoying a bounce from entering the race at precisely the right time”, said Scott Rasmussen. That is Perry’s trademark. He has made a career out of being in precisely the right place at precisely the right time.

It’s useful to remember that the election is still fifteen months away.

Tagged: Michele Bachmann, presidential polls, rasmussen, rick perry

Texas A&M’s move to the Southeast Conference is not just about football. It is also about politics. It is a way for Perry to validate himself as a southerner. In one bold move–and don’t think for a moment that Perry didn’t orchestrate this–Perry has used A&M to leverage himself into prominence in the South, an area where a Republican presidential candidate must run well. The A&M culture and the southern culture mesh well. It’s military, it’s patriotic (if you overlook the Civil War), it’s athletics overshadowing academics at most institutions, the exceptions being Vanderbilt and Georgia.

In the course of writing about Perry over the years, one thing that I heard from his advisers was, “He always has a plan.” Perry is always thinking about his next play. The big advantage he has over his rivals is that his mind is engaged 24/7 on his objectives and how to achieve them. There is no down time. I don’t see how Romney and Bachmann can compete with him in the arena of political foresight. They have no clue how disciplined he is, how focused he is, how inventive his mind is when it comes to the next move on the chess board.

The impending departure from the Big Twelve, or what’s left of it, of A&M raises serious question for the University of Texas. UT overplayed its hand in attempting to dominate the Big Twelve. It was more interested in getting its own network and all of the revenue that it would bring in than in assuring itself of having a credible league in which to play. Many in the A&M community wanted to go to the SEC at the time. The UT folks ignored that threat at their peril. Now, UT is in the position of playing in a crappy league with few credible opponents, and nobody in the near vicinity to recruit into a conference. Meanwhile, A&M has the ability to recruit athletes by saying, come to College Station and you will be playing in the best athletic conference in the country, and the richest. It is a pipeline to pro athletics. The Aggies are going to whip UT in recruiting on the strength of the SEC.  Don’t think Rick Perry didn’t think about that, too. [posted from Denver, Colorado]

* * * *

Update: I was wrong about A&M moving to the SEC, but I was in good company: It was all over ESPN this morning (Sunday). I do believe that in the long run — and I think the “long” run is two to four years — A&M will join the SEC for the reasons I stated above. They are itching to get out from the shadow of the Teasips. There is going to be another realignment in college football. The Big 12 (or the Little Ten) can not survive in its current alignment. It is economically unsustainable without a championship game.

Tagged: Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, rick perry, Southeast Conference, Texas A&M, university of texas

When I got to my computer this morning, I didn’t expect to be posting about two presidential polls today. The first one, already posted, was about New Hampshire. This one is about Iowa. Here is the basic information about the poll:

Voter/Consumer Research conducted the poll by telephone interviews between the dates of June 26th and June 30th.  It has a sample size of 500 likely caucus goers, and has a margin of error of ± 4.4 percent. Dr. Jan van Lohuizen, an expert in the field of public policy and public opinion research, founded Voter/Consumer Research.  Dr. van Lohuizen was President George W. Bush’s primary pollster and has provided his services to a number of political candidates, corporations, and various think tanks.  This is the third Iowa poll Dr. van Lohuizen has conducted for TheIowaRepublican.com.

The results:

Bachmann 25%

Romney 21%

Pawlenty 9%

Cain 8%

Paul 6%

Santorum 2%

Hunstman 1%

Favorable/Unfavorable:

Bachman 65/11

Romney 62/25

Pawlenty 60/12

Cain 54/12

Paul 49/37

Gingrich 38/52

Santorum 45/13

Huntsman 14/26

* * * *

As many readers know, Bachmann is a native Iowan. It is not suprising that she is in the lead. Romney has already decided to skip the Iowa straw poll.

Tagged: Michele Bachmann, presidential polls

No surprise here. A WMUR/Granite State poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, shows the former Massachusetts governor far in front, Bachmann running second, and everyone else in single digits. The date of the poll was not reported.

The poll results (773 likely Republican primary voters, MOE +/- 3/5%):

Romney 35%

Bachmann 12%

Ron Paul 7%

Rudy Giuliani 7%

Perry 4%

Palin 3%

Pawlenty 3%

Huntsman 2%

Cain 2%

Gingrich 1%

Gary Johnson, Buddy Roemer, Rick Santorum < 1%

I trust that readers do not have to be reminded that one of New Hampshire’s leading political operatives is Dave Carney, who is in the Perry camp.

Doug Macatonis, who posted the poll results on the Website “Outside the Beltway,” closes with this observation: “Not much to say here other than one wonders if anyone will seriously contest New Hampshire.”

Tagged: dave carney, Herman Cain, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, rick perry, ron paul, Rudy Giuliani, tim pawlenty

From Tom Jensen on the Public Policy Polling Web site:

Much has been written about the weakness of the 2012 Republican Presidential candidate field but what I think might be most remarkable about the leading quartet of Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich  is that they’ve all become more unpopular and by quite a good bit since we started monthly national 2012 polling in April of 2009. The fact that the more Americans are exposed to them, the less they like them certainly does not bode well for their competitiveness next year.

* In April 2009 Huckabee’s favorability was +8 at 42/34. Now it’s -7 at 35/42, for a 15 point drop over the last two years. His net drop has been 25 points with Democrats, 7 points with Republicans, and 19 points with independents.

* In April 2009 Palin’s favorability was -7 at 42/49. Now it’s -22 at 35/57, for a 15 point drop over the last two years. Her net drop has been 19 points with Democrats, 18 points with Republicans, and 19 points with independents. (more…)

Tagged: Gary Johnson, George W. Bush, haley barbour, jeb bush, jon huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, mitch daniels, mitt romney, newt gingrich, oliver stone, Rand Paul, rick perry, Rick Santorum, rob johnson, ron paul, sarah palin, tim pawlenty