…the reaction from the right wing of the Republican party is going to be a ferocious backlash of “We told you so.” The GOP decided to stick with the front-runner, Mitt Romney, as is its long-established habit, and while it is certainly too early to say that Romney is in trouble, recent polling, particularly in key states like Ohio and Virginia, does not look good.

The message of the right will be that Republicans have had successive failures with moderate, establishment candidates like Romney and McCain (you can throw George H. W. Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996 in there too) who do not energize the base, and that Republicans will not start winning again until they start nominating “real-deal” conservatives. The energy in the Republican party is with insurgent groups like the Ron Paulers and the Tea Party. The Republican field for 2016 is strong but it lacks social conservatives like Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann. The door could even open for the likes of Sarah Palin and Rick Perry. The dilemma for R’s is that the social conservative message turns off the independents and the establishment Republicans.

The right’s message will emerge about one second after the networks call the race. The scenario works, of course, only if Obama wins.

Here’s what Rush Limbaugh had to say early in the campaign season about the Republican disdain for the party’s right wing:

The Republican establishment, for the most part, if they could, would simply excommunicate every social conservative Republican they could find. They’d kick ‘em out of the party, and they would gag ‘em.  They’d find a way to make sure they couldn’t speak.  That’s how much they hate ‘em, detest ‘em, are embarrassed by them.  And it’s based on one thing, primarily. It’s based on the fact that these establishment Republicans and others who don’t like the social conservatives are primarily, singularly worried about what people are going to think of them for being in the same party with the social conservatives.  It really is no more complicated than that.  I mean there are other things.  They think social conservatives lose elections.  They think social conservatives make the whole Republican Party a big target, like what’s going on now, this contraception business.

* * * *

Here are the odds for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, from the Web site 2016 ELECTION.COM

Chris Christie 7/1

Mark Rubio 7/1

Sarah Palin 9/1

Paul Ryan 12/1

Rand Paul 15/1

Jeb Bush 18/1

Mike Huckabee 18/1

Eric Cantor 20/1

Bob McDonnell 25/1

John Kasich 38/1

John Thune 30/1

Jon Huntsman 30/1

Bobby Jindal 30/1

Rick Santorum 40/1

Tim Pawlenty 40/1

Tagged: 2016, mitt romney

A single word can turn a campaign in the wrong direction. In the case of Rick Perry, of course, that word was “oops.” In the case of Mitt Romney, the word was “maybe”: Romney’s answer to the question of whether he would release his tax returns. It came across as arrogant and condescending. Whether it turned the tide in the South Carolina primary is impossible to say, but it definitely diminished Romney. Most people who go into electoral politics do so knowing that they will likely be called upon to release their tax returns. It is expected. Romney ducked and dodged the question, saying that he might release them in April. “Maybe” was as close as he came.

Romney’s inconsistent statements raised the issue of why he wouldn’t release them and whether there was something embarrassing that he didn’t want anyone to know about. This is exactly what happened to Bill White. He wouldn’t release his returns, and the Perry campaign used it as an excuse to keep from debating White, and to impugn White’s ethics. Romney’s “Maybe” was his Bill White moment. He let the issue fester, when he should have known that he was going to have to release the returns in the end. Now he finds himself in a dogfight with Gingrich, trailing in the polls, with no assurance that he can win in Florida. Another self-inflicted wound in a race that has abounded with them.

Tagged: bill white, mitt romney

GOP Presidential race

Gingrich 28

Cain 25

Romney 18

Perry 6

Bachman/Paul 5

Huntsman 3

* * * *

Tweets by PPP about Perry:

* 67% of voters nationally now view Rick Perry unfavorably- pretty amazing figure

* Perry favorability is 34/48 with California GOP voters…getting towards being under water everywhere

* Perry now just flat unpopular with GOP voters- 35/49 fav down 18 pts from 46/42 in October

* Rick Perry has dropped from 14% in October to only 6%. Bigger decline than Cain has seen

I have refrained from saying Perry is finished. But the fact is, there is no good news. Well, I take it back: He still has a lot of money, but it is hard to see how he can continue to raise funds on the basis of his current numbers. He is pinning his hopes on finishing a decent third in Iowa, but with Cain holding on and Newt ascendant, it looks like a battle between Perry and Romney for third — if he doesn’t get overtaken by Ron Paul or Bachman, both of whom have followers in Iowa too. Perry is targeting the evangelical vote, although his direct mail pieces seemed pretty blah to me. The use of mailers indicates that the Perry campaign has been reduced to using strategies like direct mail that they don’t even believe in. Even his famous luck has deserted him; the expected Cain collapse hasn’t occurred. This is a complete fiasco. And after Iowa is New Hampshire, which will be worse for Perry than Iowa. Get the forks out.

Tagged: Herman Cain, Iowa, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, ron paul

These are the latest available polls in key states for the Republican primary:

U.S. Republican Primary (Rasmussen) 11/2

Cain 26%

Romney 23%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 8%

Iowa  Caucus (Insider Advantage) 11/6

Cain 30%

Romney 15%

Gingrich 12%

Paul 9%

Bachmann 8%

Perry 6%

Santorum 2%

Huntsman 2%

Iowa Caucus (Des Moines Register) 10/23 – 10/26

Cain 27%

Romney 22%

Paul 11%

Gingrich 9%

Bachman 7%

Perry 7%

Santorum 3%

Huntsman 1%

New Hampshire Primary (Rasmussen 10/27)

Romney 41%

Cain 17%

Paul 11%%

Gingrich 6%

Huntsman 6%

Perry 4%

Bachmann 3%

Santorum 1%

South Carolina Primary (Rasmussen) 11/1

Cain 33%

Romney 23%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 9%

Florida Primary (Suffolk/7 News) 10/26 – 10/30

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 11%

Perry 9%

Florida Primary (Quinnipiac) 10/25 – 10/31

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 7%

Florida Primary (Suffolk/Ch 7) 10/26 – 10/30

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 11%

Perry 9%

Paul 5%

Bachmann 2%

Santorum 1%

Huntsman 1%

Tagged: Herman Cain, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, rick perry, Rick Santorum, ron paul

Politicalwire.com reports today that the Perry campaign is unveiling an attack ad against Mitt Romney. Here is the full text of the item:

Rick Perry released a tough new ad linking Mitt Romney to President Obama’s new health care law.

ABC News calls it the “harshest and most slickly produced attack ad of Campaign 2012.”

“There’s no word yet from the Perry campaign on where or how much the ad will run. But a knowledgable GOP source unaffiliated with any of the candidates tells me Perry plans to unleash a $20 million ad barrage against Romney going into the early primaries.”

* * * *

This is vintage Perry. He always seeks to be the aggressor. But I wonder if this is a good decision by the Perry camp. To be running a negative ad about a primary opponent at this stage of the game–at least three months before the first primary voter casts a ballot–looks more like desperation than a well reasoned gambit. A negative ad is only effective if the candidate airing the ad has a positive image. The Perry campaign is launching this ad at a time when Perry has been in decline in most polls. I don’t think it’s going to help him.

Worse, it runs the risk of being a distraction. Perry has a good message on the most important issue in the campaign–jobs and the economy. If he is going to spend $20 million on an ad campaign, wouldn’t it be better spent if the message were how Perry will create jobs in America? Yet he keeps straying off-message, into issues like social security and immigration and, here, health care.

The danger to Perry is that the chattering classes will see this ploy for what it looks like, an attempt to rescue a campaign that is in trouble. These perceptions race through the political bloodstream like an epidemic. I don’t think Perry needed to attack Romney now. What he needs is a good debate performance, not an attack ad.

Tagged: mitt romney, presidential campaign, rick perry, Romney's Remedy ad

A lot of people are writing Perry off after his awful performance in the Florida debate, but this poll was taken AFTER the disastrous debate.

Perry is not a good debater. He is no match for his rivals, who know federal issues better than he does, and are much better at the tactics of debate. But the debate portion of the campaign is going to come to an end at some point, not too far distant, and when that happens, the focus will shift to meet-and-greets in Iowa and New Hampshire and other swing states. Perry is much better at connecting with people than Romney is. We can all make sport of Perry, but he is still in great position to win the nomination. Connecting with people is his specialty. Romney lacks the common touch.

Tagged: CNN poll, mitt romney, republican presidential primary, rick perry

I wrote a post yesterday under the headline, “The bush leagues,” in which I said that one reason for Perry’s poor performance in the current campaign is that he has had it too easy in Texas during the last ten years–that he has gotten away with ducking debates and dodging the media.

Shortly after I posted that article, I received an e-mail from a friend who sent along a column by a well thought of conservative blogger, who is the author of legalinsurrection.com. Legalinsurrection.com is the work of Professor William A. Jacobson at the Cornell University school of law. His post of 9/23 was extremely critical of Perry’s performance in the Florida debate. I have posted his remarks below. I have removed my friend’s comments from the post in the interest of clarity, even though his observations were trenchant.

Tagged: Gardasil, Katie Thompson, legalinsurrection.com, Michelle Malkin, mitt romney, Paul Krugman, Professor William Jacobson, rick perry, Students for Perry

UPDATE:

Note to readers:  Below, I wrote, “I don’t see any mystery in these results. Romney figured to gain after Perry’s lackluster performance in the Tampa debate.” In fact, the poll was taken during the period Sept. 9-12, BEFORE the debate. So Perry’s performance in the Tampa debate had no effect on the poll.

No other candidate reached 10% in the poll:

Bachmann 9%

Palin 8%

Paul 8%

Cain 4%

Gingrich 4%

Santorum 2%

Huntsman 1%

Poll details:

–Conducted Sep 9-12 for Bloomberg News by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, IA

–Interviews with 997 U.S. adults ages 18 or older. Some
questions included an oversample of 205 self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

–Interviewers contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone telephone numbers.

–Percentages based on the full sample may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%

Tagged: bloomberg poll, mitt romney, ponzi scheme, republican presidential primary, rick perry, social security

Perry has taken a lot of hits this week, perhaps the hardest of which came from GOP rival John Huntsman. Most of them won’t matter. Why? Because the criticism of Perry occurred in the context of a Republican primary race, which Perry is well situated to win. He passed Romney and Bachmann in the polls before he was officially a candidate. Bachmann has no chance to beat Perry, although she could slow him down in Iowa. Romney can still win if he can persuade voters that Perry is not electable. Most of Perry’s off-the-kuff commentary would be problematical only in a general election context.

Tagged: Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, rick perry

Texas A&M’s move to the Southeast Conference is not just about football. It is also about politics. It is a way for Perry to validate himself as a southerner. In one bold move–and don’t think for a moment that Perry didn’t orchestrate this–Perry has used A&M to leverage himself into prominence in the South, an area where a Republican presidential candidate must run well. The A&M culture and the southern culture mesh well. It’s military, it’s patriotic (if you overlook the Civil War), it’s athletics overshadowing academics at most institutions, the exceptions being Vanderbilt and Georgia.

In the course of writing about Perry over the years, one thing that I heard from his advisers was, “He always has a plan.” Perry is always thinking about his next play. The big advantage he has over his rivals is that his mind is engaged 24/7 on his objectives and how to achieve them. There is no down time. I don’t see how Romney and Bachmann can compete with him in the arena of political foresight. They have no clue how disciplined he is, how focused he is, how inventive his mind is when it comes to the next move on the chess board.

The impending departure from the Big Twelve, or what’s left of it, of A&M raises serious question for the University of Texas. UT overplayed its hand in attempting to dominate the Big Twelve. It was more interested in getting its own network and all of the revenue that it would bring in than in assuring itself of having a credible league in which to play. Many in the A&M community wanted to go to the SEC at the time. The UT folks ignored that threat at their peril. Now, UT is in the position of playing in a crappy league with few credible opponents, and nobody in the near vicinity to recruit into a conference. Meanwhile, A&M has the ability to recruit athletes by saying, come to College Station and you will be playing in the best athletic conference in the country, and the richest. It is a pipeline to pro athletics. The Aggies are going to whip UT in recruiting on the strength of the SEC.  Don’t think Rick Perry didn’t think about that, too. [posted from Denver, Colorado]

* * * *

Update: I was wrong about A&M moving to the SEC, but I was in good company: It was all over ESPN this morning (Sunday). I do believe that in the long run — and I think the “long” run is two to four years — A&M will join the SEC for the reasons I stated above. They are itching to get out from the shadow of the Teasips. There is going to be another realignment in college football. The Big 12 (or the Little Ten) can not survive in its current alignment. It is economically unsustainable without a championship game.

Tagged: Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, rick perry, Southeast Conference, Texas A&M, university of texas