As the ranks of Republican candidates thin with Herman Cain’s decision to suspend his campaign, the remaining serious candidates are reduced to three: Romney, Gingrich, and Perry. No, I haven’t forgotten Ron Paul. I just dismiss him as a contender. He can get his share of the votes, but he cannot be the nominee. And he is actually helping Perry by running attack ads against Gingrich in Iowa; this one is a shorter version of the web ad that attracted so much attention a week or so back.

Sooner or later–probably the former–the national media is going to start digging into Gingrich’s past, and they will uncover a mother lode of material. At that point, the media become Perry’s new best friend, and Gingrich will began to fall in the polls. Then Republican field will narrow to Romney vs. Perry. In that scenario, it’s advantage Perry. Don’t write him off yet.

Tagged: Herman Cain, Iowa, newt gingrich, rick perry, ron paul

GOP Presidential race

Gingrich 28

Cain 25

Romney 18

Perry 6

Bachman/Paul 5

Huntsman 3

* * * *

Tweets by PPP about Perry:

* 67% of voters nationally now view Rick Perry unfavorably- pretty amazing figure

* Perry favorability is 34/48 with California GOP voters…getting towards being under water everywhere

* Perry now just flat unpopular with GOP voters- 35/49 fav down 18 pts from 46/42 in October

* Rick Perry has dropped from 14% in October to only 6%. Bigger decline than Cain has seen

I have refrained from saying Perry is finished. But the fact is, there is no good news. Well, I take it back: He still has a lot of money, but it is hard to see how he can continue to raise funds on the basis of his current numbers. He is pinning his hopes on finishing a decent third in Iowa, but with Cain holding on and Newt ascendant, it looks like a battle between Perry and Romney for third — if he doesn’t get overtaken by Ron Paul or Bachman, both of whom have followers in Iowa too. Perry is targeting the evangelical vote, although his direct mail pieces seemed pretty blah to me. The use of mailers indicates that the Perry campaign has been reduced to using strategies like direct mail that they don’t even believe in. Even his famous luck has deserted him; the expected Cain collapse hasn’t occurred. This is a complete fiasco. And after Iowa is New Hampshire, which will be worse for Perry than Iowa. Get the forks out.

Tagged: Herman Cain, Iowa, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, ron paul

These are the latest available polls in key states for the Republican primary:

U.S. Republican Primary (Rasmussen) 11/2

Cain 26%

Romney 23%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 8%

Iowa  Caucus (Insider Advantage) 11/6

Cain 30%

Romney 15%

Gingrich 12%

Paul 9%

Bachmann 8%

Perry 6%

Santorum 2%

Huntsman 2%

Iowa Caucus (Des Moines Register) 10/23 – 10/26

Cain 27%

Romney 22%

Paul 11%

Gingrich 9%

Bachman 7%

Perry 7%

Santorum 3%

Huntsman 1%

New Hampshire Primary (Rasmussen 10/27)

Romney 41%

Cain 17%

Paul 11%%

Gingrich 6%

Huntsman 6%

Perry 4%

Bachmann 3%

Santorum 1%

South Carolina Primary (Rasmussen) 11/1

Cain 33%

Romney 23%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 9%

Florida Primary (Suffolk/7 News) 10/26 – 10/30

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 11%

Perry 9%

Florida Primary (Quinnipiac) 10/25 – 10/31

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 7%

Florida Primary (Suffolk/Ch 7) 10/26 – 10/30

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 11%

Perry 9%

Paul 5%

Bachmann 2%

Santorum 1%

Huntsman 1%

Tagged: Herman Cain, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, rick perry, Rick Santorum, ron paul

No surprise here. A WMUR/Granite State poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, shows the former Massachusetts governor far in front, Bachmann running second, and everyone else in single digits. The date of the poll was not reported.

The poll results (773 likely Republican primary voters, MOE +/- 3/5%):

Romney 35%

Bachmann 12%

Ron Paul 7%

Rudy Giuliani 7%

Perry 4%

Palin 3%

Pawlenty 3%

Huntsman 2%

Cain 2%

Gingrich 1%

Gary Johnson, Buddy Roemer, Rick Santorum < 1%

I trust that readers do not have to be reminded that one of New Hampshire’s leading political operatives is Dave Carney, who is in the Perry camp.

Doug Macatonis, who posted the poll results on the Website “Outside the Beltway,” closes with this observation: “Not much to say here other than one wonders if anyone will seriously contest New Hampshire.”

Tagged: dave carney, Herman Cain, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, rick perry, ron paul, Rudy Giuliani, tim pawlenty

From Tom Jensen on the Public Policy Polling Web site:

Much has been written about the weakness of the 2012 Republican Presidential candidate field but what I think might be most remarkable about the leading quartet of Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich  is that they’ve all become more unpopular and by quite a good bit since we started monthly national 2012 polling in April of 2009. The fact that the more Americans are exposed to them, the less they like them certainly does not bode well for their competitiveness next year.

* In April 2009 Huckabee’s favorability was +8 at 42/34. Now it’s -7 at 35/42, for a 15 point drop over the last two years. His net drop has been 25 points with Democrats, 7 points with Republicans, and 19 points with independents.

* In April 2009 Palin’s favorability was -7 at 42/49. Now it’s -22 at 35/57, for a 15 point drop over the last two years. Her net drop has been 19 points with Democrats, 18 points with Republicans, and 19 points with independents. (more…)

Tagged: Gary Johnson, George W. Bush, haley barbour, jeb bush, jon huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, mitch daniels, mitt romney, newt gingrich, oliver stone, Rand Paul, rick perry, Rick Santorum, rob johnson, ron paul, sarah palin, tim pawlenty

I attended a tea party meeting on tax day. It was held at the Doubletree on Interstate 35 north. The session took place in the hotel ballroom, so the atmosphere was rather subdued. The attendees were almost entirely white and in the 40 to 60 age cohort. I did see one African-American couple. From my vantage point, at the back of the room, women appeared to outnumber men. The word that is always used to describe tea party members is “angry,” but that was not the mood here. I didn’t see any signs on display either. These were ordinary folks, salt-of-the-earth types.

As I arrived, a man onstage was talking. He was wearing a suit and appeared to be some kind of official. “If you’re a Republican in district 47, and you want to give Valinda Bolton an early retirement–and we don’t endorse any candidates–you need to get involved at the local level, in your precinct. If you’re a Republican or a Democrat, we’re in this together, because if what we’re doing doesn’t work for all Americans, then we’re doing the wrong thing.”

The official called on people in the audience. A woman from Kerr County said, “You said that the only way was to get involved at the local level. There’s as much bad stuff going on at the local level as there is in Washington, D.C.”

The next question from the audience was, “How do we not splinter off into a third party?” The answer from the dais was, “There is no one leader of the tea party. We’re savvy. We get it.” “Our view is, when you have a primary, pick the one that embodies your principles. Then vote for someone who is fiscally conservative.” About this time, Newt Gingrich arrived and was introduced to enthusiastic applause.

“Thank you for that very warm welcome,” Gingrich says. “Today [April 15] we pay for government. Three days from now is the anniversary of Paul Revere’s ride. What has made America remarkable is the people’s willingness to stand up for their rights. They really believed what is written in the Declaration of Independence. We are endowed by our Creator. These rights are inalienable. We are the only people in history to say power comes from God to you. You are personally sovereign.”

“The second part–you’re endowed with the right to pursue happiness–in the eighteenth century, happiness meant wisdom. It doesn’t say that we’re all endowed with equal happiness, or that we have happiness stamps, or redistributed happiness.”

“You’re sending a signal to the rest of America to get involved. There is zero reason to believe that elected politicians are an elite, an aristocracy. Only 535 serve in the House. [This was a mistake that a former speaker should not make. Only 435 serve in the House. Another 100 serve in the Senate.] The American dream was to decentralize government, to have citizens engaged.”

“I believe adamantly, we have to be the movement of Yes and the party of Yes.”

“Obama, Pelosi, and Reed are the secular socialist machine.”

“The morning after we win, we have to be prepared to do things. You have to say what you’re going to do and then do them. Government should be a conversation among all of us.”

[Then Gingrich mentioned his record as speaker]

(more…)

Tagged: john boehner, mitch mcconnell, newt gingrich, tea party, Valinda Bolton

My first reaction to McCain’s decision to suspend his campaign and forego the debate due to the economic meltdown was that it was an awful move. My second reaction was the same. The country is facing a crisis and McCain, who just ran a TV spot saying, “I’ve tackled tougher guys than this before,” cuts and runs. This is exactly counter to the image that his campaign has tried to foster. He is choosing to be part of the problem instead of part of the solution.

And yet, it may turn out to be a smart move. Today, National Journal has a story about a poll, conducted for Newt Gingrich’s organization, American Solutions for Winning the Future, by two pollsters, one R, one D, showing that 7 in 10 Americans oppose using tax dollars to prevent companies from failing and 68% favor letting companies go bankrupt, even if it hurts the stock market. However, the story goes on to say that a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that more than 60% of Americans favored the government’s stepping in stabilize the economy. I find the first poll more credible than the second: The visceral reaction of most Americans is against government bailouts.

It is clear now that the McCain camp is putting all its chips on McCain’s maverick, populist image. They are adapting the old advice for lawyers: If the law is on your side, pound on the law; if the facts are on your side, pound on the fact; if neither is on your side, pound on the table. There is a huge constituency that does not like bailouts. (Opposition to bailouts is in the 2008 GOP platform.) The Democrats are in charge of Congress, and it is their job to pass a bill. Without Republican help, they can’t pass it. And it looks like they can’t pass it, certainly not in the Senate if Republicans continue to oppose it. So McCain gets to oppose Bush (who he doesn’t like anyway), burnish his credentials as a populist/maverick/reformer, and leave the Democrats and Bush holding the bag. This looks pretty smart to me — if you don’t care that it is totally irresponsible for a presidential ticket to offer nothing constructive in a time of crisis and make it difficult, if not totally impossible, for anybody else to do so.

I might add that if George W. Bush had not spent all his political capital on Iraq, if he had not put all his chips for winning reelection on scaring the American people about how dangerous the world is (yes, it IS dangerous, and always will be so), if he had not asked the American people to trust him about weapons of mass destruction, if he had not violated their trust by stretching the constitution and allowing the Justice Department to become politicized …. oh, well, what’s the use of wondering about what might have been if he had governed in a way to earn and keep the public’s trust? Too late. He is as bereft of political capital today as Wall Street is bereft of actual capital. He is the lamest lame duck I have ever seen.

Tagged: debate, mccain, newt gingrich