The Republican War Room poll (Sept. 30), from the Houston Chronicle:

Romney 28.2%

Cain 23.7%

Gingrich 9.8%

Perry 9.1%

Perry has dropped 15 points in ten days.

Florida is arguably the most important state in the country in Republican politics. Texas has more delegates, but Texas is not in play. The Florida GOP incorporates Cubans in South Florida, Jewish retirees along the Gold Coast, rednecks in the Panhandle, more retirees in the Tampa-St. Pete area, and middle class homeowners along the Interstate 4 corridor. The state is a rich lode of votes.

The turnaround in Florida raises the question of why Team Perry chose not to address delegates at the straw poll, in an effort to finish on top, and instead flew to Michigan, a state Romney had wrapped up. I think the answer is that the Perry camp thought they had the poll wrapped up.

Maybe it is time to reflect upon previous turnarounds. There was Clinton in New Hampshire, 1992, when he spun a second-place finish into the story line that he was the “comeback kid.” There was Bush, who got trounced in New Hampshire in 2000 by McCain, but then went to Bob Jones University in South Carolina and won a vigorous debate against John McCain. The difference between Perry’s situation today and those comebacks is that the Perry campaign has been rocked by as bad a stretch of negative press and poor performances by the candidate as I can ever recall in presidential politics. Maybe the closest parallel was Ross Perot’s self-destruction in 1992, which resulted in his withdrawal from the race (though he came back in later). I remember that  Ron Brownstein, then with the LA Times, was in town, and we started ticking off the negative stories, and they went on and on and on. That’s what is happening to Perry. He is drowning in black ink.

Tagged: Florida, poll, republican presidential primary, rick perry

The sample covers 1,002 adults and covers the dates of September 19-October 2. Repondents were divided into “lean-Republican” voters and “registered voters.”

From the Post’s story:

The poll found that Romney had regained the lead:

Romney 25%

Perry 16%

Cain 16%

Christie (not an announced candidate) 10%

Tagged: poll, republican presidential primary, rick perry

This one from Zogby IBOPE, the latter initials refer to a Brazilian firm that has acquired the Zogby operation. This poll is described as “interactive” but what that means is not explained. The respondents are “all likely voters and likely Republican primary voters.” This gibberish is a good reason why I have never trusted Zogby polls. This one was taken after the Florida straw poll. No MOE or other useful information.

Cain 28%

Perry 18%

Romney 17%

Ron Paul 11%

Newt Gingrich 6%

Tagged: poll, republican presidential primary, Zogby

Perry 27%

Romney 14%

Palin 10%

Bachmann 9%

…and so on

Perry has doubled up Romney in this poll. The more extreme his rhetoric gets, the more extreme his poll numbers get.

Conditions of the poll:

Interviews with 1,017 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on August 24-25, 2011.  The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 927 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3 percentage points).

The sample includes 805 interviews among landline respondents and 212 interviews among cell phone respondents.

Tagged: poll, republican presidential primary, rick perry

Huge numbers for Perry. He turned Romney’s 23-18 lead into a 17-29 deficit in one month.

By region:

East: Perry 16%, Romney 17%, Paul 15%

Midwest: Perry 23%, Romney 20%, Paul 18%

South: Perry 39%, Romney 12%, Paul 9%

West: Perry 28%, Romney 22%, Paul 12%

Among voters 65+, Perry leads Romney by 40% to 16%

* * * *

Perry is going to be the Republican nominee. His coalition is pretty obvious from these numbers. It’s the South, the evangelicals, and the tea party geezers. What’s more, these elements of his constituency appear to be fiercely loyal. We’ve all seen this before. The only way he can lose in the primary is to make a huge mistake — but he doesn’t make huge mistakes — or be brought down by a major scandal — but he has never been implicated in a major scandal. We might as well skip the primary and go straight to the general election.

Tagged: poll, rick perry

I was told about this poll by a lobbyist who was familiar with the poll. It covered just District 127 (Crabb’s seat), which is primarily Kingwood and other parts of east and northeast Harris County. It’s my understanding that the governor’s race question was added to the poll. This is a very Republican area. Perry was ahead of Hutchison by 11 points.

Tagged: kay bailey hutchison, poll, rick perry

This report comes from a polling firm that did a post-debate survey of Republican primary voters. I am authorized to publish these numbers. I have no further information to provide other than what I am publishing here.

–Perry and Hutchison lost support as a result of the debate. Perry fell into the high thirties, Hutchison into the high twenties.

–This lost support went to undecideds, which are now close to 20%, and to Medina, who is in the low teens. Medina is hurting Perry among men and Hutchison among women.

–Medina’s positive name ID is up to 30%, her negative name ID is at 20%

–Perry name ID is 55% positive, 45% negative
–Hutchison’s name ID is 55% positive, 39% negative

These numbers seem very plausible to me. I would have been very surprised if Medina’s numbers had not gone up. A credible case can be made that she won the debate. The Dallas Morning News ought to reconsider whether she belongs in the January 29 debate. They are going to look mighty silly if Medina is sitting home with 15 to 20 points in the polls. (The paper’s threshold for qualifying for inclusion in the debate is 15%.) I think Hutchison is in more danger from Medina than Perry is. Medina is younger and fresher than Hutchison. She has a little of Sarah Palin in her, an element of sincerity with considerably more intelligence. If she can raise money from Ron Paul’s mailing list, she might be able to make a move.

Assuming that these numbers hold up over the next few weeks, the Republican primary race appears to be headed toward a runoff. This is very dangerous territory for an incumbent.

Tagged: debate, Debra Medina, kay bailey hutchison, poll, rick perry, runoff

This is the article about the poll on the Rasmussen Web site:

Texas Governor Rick Perry and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison find themselves essentially tied in an early look at their 2010 Primary battle.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey shows Perry attracting 42% of the vote while Hutchison earns 38%. Seven percent (7%) say they’d like to vote for somebody else and 13% are undecided.

Perry leads by 15 percentage points among conservative voters but Hutchison leads by 35 points among the moderates.

Favorability ratings for the two candidates are virtually even among Likely Republican Primary Voters. Perry is viewed Very Favorably by 26% and Very Unfavorably by 9%. The comparable numbers for Hutchison are 27% and 10%.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls.) Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter.

Twenty-five percent (25%) Strongly Approve of the way that Perry has performed his job as Governor while 10% Strongly Disapprove.

These numbers suggest that the Governor’s race is wide open with neither candidate holding a commanding position. This is the first Rasmussen Reports poll of the race. Earlier in the year, other polls had shown Hutchison with a significant lead.

In 2006, Perry won re-election with just 39% of the vote while Democrat Chris Bell earned 30%. Carole Keeton Strayhorn left the Republican Party to run as an Independent in the race and picked up 18% of the vote. Comedian Richard ‘Kinky’ Friedman also ran as an Independent and attracted support from 12%.

While attending a “Tea Party” protest last month, Perry seemed to suggest that secession was something Texas might consider in the future. He later backed away from those comments. Seventy-five percent (75%) of Texas voters said they would vote to stay in the USA.

Tagged: kay bailey hutchison, poll, rasmussen reports, rick perry

The poll was conducted by Voter Consumer Research between December 7 and December 9. The telephone survey included 601 general election voters and 466 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the general election survey was +/- 4.1%, and +/- 4.6% for Republican primary voters.

Favorability:

* 67% of all voters have a favorable impression
* 73% of Republican primary voters have a favorable impression
* Compared to other prominent figures, among general election voters:
–Hutchison 67%
–Perry 51%
–Gramm 48%
–Bill White 28%
–Sharp 27%
–Chet Edwards 17%

* KBH geographical favorability
–San Antonio 74%
–Dallas 70%
–East Texas 68%

* Republican Primary head-to-head (GOP primary voters only): If the primary were held today, who would you vote for?
–Hutchison 55%
–Perry 31%
–Don’t know 12%
–Neither/Other 2%

* “Strong” favorability (GOP primary voters only)
–Hutchison 58% “very favorable”
–Perry 30% “very favorable”

* GOP primary history of “very favorable” voters
–78% are conservative
–63% always vote in primaries
–56% name illegal immigration a top issue

* Strength outside the Republican primary
–Hutchison “tops both potential Democratic candidates [White or Sharp] in a general election
–Perry “fails to reach 50% against either White or Sharp”
–Hutchison “carries all key demographics in both potential general election match-ups,
including men, women, Hispanics, and ticket-splitters”
–32% of primary voters “more likely to vote against Perry because they fear he could lose to a Democrat”

Tagged: burkablog, kay bailey hutchison, paul burka, poll, texas monthly, voter consumer research