I’m not surprised. As I said last when the Daily Beast‘s Jill Lawrence wrote that  Perry needed an economic plan, there is no chance, zip, zero, zilch, none, that Perry would come out with a detailed plan. It’s not what they do. Perry is going to stick to the Carney game plan–attack Romney, attack Obama, repeat his talking points. I suppose that the $17.1 million the campaign took in during the previous quarter will reinforce the belief among Team Perry that everything is going well. But behind the numbers of how much money Perry amassed was the fact that half of it came from Texas. That’s not so good. It means his fundraising is not broad-based, and it also means that during the next reporting period, Perry is either going to have to find new donors, or else go back to the well with his Texas donors, who may not be so eager to contribute again after just having opened their wallets.

Tagged: republican presidential primary, rick perry, Rick Perry's economic plan

$17.1 million raised in the third quarter fundraising period. This is a very impressive performance. It buys time and staying power through the next rounds of debates and into the early primaries. The accelerated primary schedule benefits candidates with the most money.

(The original version of this post said $18.1 million. This version is correct.)

Tagged: fundraising, republican presidential primary, rick perry

The Republican War Room poll (Sept. 30), from the Houston Chronicle:

Romney 28.2%

Cain 23.7%

Gingrich 9.8%

Perry 9.1%

Perry has dropped 15 points in ten days.

Florida is arguably the most important state in the country in Republican politics. Texas has more delegates, but Texas is not in play. The Florida GOP incorporates Cubans in South Florida, Jewish retirees along the Gold Coast, rednecks in the Panhandle, more retirees in the Tampa-St. Pete area, and middle class homeowners along the Interstate 4 corridor. The state is a rich lode of votes.

The turnaround in Florida raises the question of why Team Perry chose not to address delegates at the straw poll, in an effort to finish on top, and instead flew to Michigan, a state Romney had wrapped up. I think the answer is that the Perry camp thought they had the poll wrapped up.

Maybe it is time to reflect upon previous turnarounds. There was Clinton in New Hampshire, 1992, when he spun a second-place finish into the story line that he was the “comeback kid.” There was Bush, who got trounced in New Hampshire in 2000 by McCain, but then went to Bob Jones University in South Carolina and won a vigorous debate against John McCain. The difference between Perry’s situation today and those comebacks is that the Perry campaign has been rocked by as bad a stretch of negative press and poor performances by the candidate as I can ever recall in presidential politics. Maybe the closest parallel was Ross Perot’s self-destruction in 1992, which resulted in his withdrawal from the race (though he came back in later). I remember that  Ron Brownstein, then with the LA Times, was in town, and we started ticking off the negative stories, and they went on and on and on. That’s what is happening to Perry. He is drowning in black ink.

Tagged: Florida, poll, republican presidential primary, rick perry

The sample covers 1,002 adults and covers the dates of September 19-October 2. Repondents were divided into “lean-Republican” voters and “registered voters.”

From the Post’s story:

The poll found that Romney had regained the lead:

Romney 25%

Perry 16%

Cain 16%

Christie (not an announced candidate) 10%

Tagged: poll, republican presidential primary, rick perry

The next Republican debate, presented by the Washington Post and Bloomberg News, will be held on October 11 at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. Charlie Rose will be the moderator. Here is the official statement by the sponsors:

The Washington Post-Bloomberg debate will focus on the issues voters say they care about most: jobs, deficit, taxes and the economy. The debate will be the first of the 2012 Presidential campaign devoted to the single subject of the U.S. economy. Three years after the most severe downturn in the economy since the Great Depression, the candidates will debate over federal spending, deficits and debt, Social Security, Medicare, financial regulatory reform, taxes and the top issue in national polls: jobs.

This is Perry’s best chance to regain the momentum in the presidential race. He won’t face a lot of questions about social issues, which has been trouble for him in previous debates. But there will be a lot of pressure on him. The expectation is that he should do well in this subject area. Jobs and the economy are his strong points. If he flubs it, I don’t think he can recover. It really is now or never.

If I were coaching Perry, the first thing I would tell him is to get some rest. He has been wearing down in recent debates. The second thing I would tell him is that he has to come across as presidential. He has to stop relying on conservative boilerplate and talking points and articulate how he would lead the country.

This debate is exactly what he needs at the exact time that he needs it. He and Romney are going to be going head-to-head. Perry doesn’t have to win this debate, but he does have to hold his own. If he doesn’t, he’s in big trouble.

Tagged: New Hampshire Debate, republican presidential primary, rick perry

This one from Zogby IBOPE, the latter initials refer to a Brazilian firm that has acquired the Zogby operation. This poll is described as “interactive” but what that means is not explained. The respondents are “all likely voters and likely Republican primary voters.” This gibberish is a good reason why I have never trusted Zogby polls. This one was taken after the Florida straw poll. No MOE or other useful information.

Cain 28%

Perry 18%

Romney 17%

Ron Paul 11%

Newt Gingrich 6%

Tagged: poll, republican presidential primary, Zogby

Many readers will be familiar with this poll since it has received a great deal of coverage. The poll was posted on September 29. The sample covers 925 registered voters, and there was a smaller subset of likely Republican voters.

Romney 23%

Perry 19%

Cain 17%

Gingrich 11%

Bachmann 3%

In the August poll, Perry led with 29%.

I’m not going to engage in a lot of punditry concerning this poll. Residents of Mars know by this time that Perry had a bad debate performance that explains his loss of support.  He has squandered a lot of momentum, but it’s too early to write him off. The problem for Perry is that the attacks on him are going to continue. Furthermore, Perry doesn’t seem able to control his mouth. (more…)

Tagged: Fox News poll, republican presidential primary, rick perry

The poll was conducted by American Research Group (ARG)

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican caucus goers living in Iowa (517 Republicans and 83 no party (independent) voters).

Sample Dates: September 22-27, 2011

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

September 2011

Romney 21%

Bachmann 15%

Perry 14%

Ron Paul 12% (more…)

Tagged: iowa poll, republican presidential primary, rick perry

A lot of people are writing Perry off after his awful performance in the Florida debate, but this poll was taken AFTER the disastrous debate.

Perry is not a good debater. He is no match for his rivals, who know federal issues better than he does, and are much better at the tactics of debate. But the debate portion of the campaign is going to come to an end at some point, not too far distant, and when that happens, the focus will shift to meet-and-greets in Iowa and New Hampshire and other swing states. Perry is much better at connecting with people than Romney is. We can all make sport of Perry, but he is still in great position to win the nomination. Connecting with people is his specialty. Romney lacks the common touch.

Tagged: CNN poll, mitt romney, republican presidential primary, rick perry

Could Rick Perry’s stunning loss of the Florida straw poll have been averted? Possibly. The question here is whether the Perry camp was so overconfident that it scheduled him to go to a similar straw poll in Michigan without addressing the delegates in Florida. At the times, Perry and Romney were tied in Florida voting with 25% each. Cain was lagging with 5%. Florida is a much more important state than Michigan. Perry may have erred by foregoing the opportunity to lobby for votes. As it turned out, Cain won by such a large margin–37% to 15% over Perry and 14% over Romney–that Perry’s travels didn’t really affect the outcome. Romney easily won the Michigan straw poll, as expected.

It is hard to imagine Cain as a serious contender for president. Nevertheless, Perry’s success depends to some extent on his ability to reduce the number of major candidates so that he can go head to head with Romney, his major tormentor. So far, not only has he failed to break away from the pack, but one member of the pack has zoomed past him, for the time being. One has to wonder whether Perry’s stumbles have been noticed by Sarah Palin, who can’t seem to make up her mind whether she wants to be in the game or not.

Tagged: Herman Cain, republican presidential primary, rick perry