This email was circulated by a longtime Republican activist:

If you are in Travis County proper, we desperately need you to come the the Republican county convention  this Saturday because all hell is breaking loose with the street scum the RP people are recruiting to help them overturn the rules and then the leadership of the county convention and same on to state convention to elect delegates to the national convention. It’s not really about their favorite candidate any more but more about disruption and anarchy.

They are able to do this because our primaries have been pushed off so late the conventions are being held before the primaries, and all someone has to do is swear allegiance to the R Party and they get a little yellow card and are allowed in to the County convention, (which is divided into State Senate Districts  as soon as it begins–but that’s not important to understand right now) as if they had voted in the primary. We have no way of knowing for sure who they are. The libertarian party is required to file its list of attendees with the County Clerk, but they have not done so, and they will not give us their list. If people attend both, they will be prosecuted, but we would rather not have to do it after the fact that way.

Most of these people, however, are not libertarians, but just warm bodies or even Democrats who have been recruited to come. I am sure many of them have never voted in any election. Some have a reason–such as hating Bush, wanting drugs legalized or our military dismantled–and others, I honestly don’t know what their incentive is because they are apolitical and know nothing about anything. Some are 9-11 “truthers.”

I am on nominations committee for SD 14, and we interviewed hordes of people last night, most of them imposters with yellow cards, and we will have to do the same tonite. We don’t have to vote them in as delegates to the state convention but we do need to meet with them if they have their card and will wait hours to meet with us. They want to be delegates to state convention and lie about who recruited them and why. Many of them do not know there is a Senate race in Texas and have little speeches prepared about themselves and their “concern for our country” and the constitution.

They will have even more people this Saturday, and, being revolutionaries, they will have the numbers to take over if normal Republicans don’t show up.

Please pass along to your like-minded friends. I know it’s inconvenient, but it is as important as your vote in the primary and in November.

If it weren’t for the redistricting fiasco, this would not be happening.

The county convention will be at Hyde Park Baptist Church because we couldn’t find any other suitable facility for a group this large.

* * * *

This is the third time I have written about a possible “takeover” by the Ron Paul forces. I suspect that the fears are exaggerated, but there is clearly a lot of angst in Republican circles about the Paulbots. The church is in the middle of a quiet residential neighborhood, but it won’t be quiet tomorrow. Parking will be next to impossible. There is also a question of whether the Paul forces will  be invading county conventions across the state. We’ll know soon enough.

Tagged: ron paul

As the ranks of Republican candidates thin with Herman Cain’s decision to suspend his campaign, the remaining serious candidates are reduced to three: Romney, Gingrich, and Perry. No, I haven’t forgotten Ron Paul. I just dismiss him as a contender. He can get his share of the votes, but he cannot be the nominee. And he is actually helping Perry by running attack ads against Gingrich in Iowa; this one is a shorter version of the web ad that attracted so much attention a week or so back.

Sooner or later–probably the former–the national media is going to start digging into Gingrich’s past, and they will uncover a mother lode of material. At that point, the media become Perry’s new best friend, and Gingrich will began to fall in the polls. Then Republican field will narrow to Romney vs. Perry. In that scenario, it’s advantage Perry. Don’t write him off yet.

Tagged: Herman Cain, Iowa, newt gingrich, rick perry, ron paul

GOP Presidential race

Gingrich 28

Cain 25

Romney 18

Perry 6

Bachman/Paul 5

Huntsman 3

* * * *

Tweets by PPP about Perry:

* 67% of voters nationally now view Rick Perry unfavorably- pretty amazing figure

* Perry favorability is 34/48 with California GOP voters…getting towards being under water everywhere

* Perry now just flat unpopular with GOP voters- 35/49 fav down 18 pts from 46/42 in October

* Rick Perry has dropped from 14% in October to only 6%. Bigger decline than Cain has seen

I have refrained from saying Perry is finished. But the fact is, there is no good news. Well, I take it back: He still has a lot of money, but it is hard to see how he can continue to raise funds on the basis of his current numbers. He is pinning his hopes on finishing a decent third in Iowa, but with Cain holding on and Newt ascendant, it looks like a battle between Perry and Romney for third — if he doesn’t get overtaken by Ron Paul or Bachman, both of whom have followers in Iowa too. Perry is targeting the evangelical vote, although his direct mail pieces seemed pretty blah to me. The use of mailers indicates that the Perry campaign has been reduced to using strategies like direct mail that they don’t even believe in. Even his famous luck has deserted him; the expected Cain collapse hasn’t occurred. This is a complete fiasco. And after Iowa is New Hampshire, which will be worse for Perry than Iowa. Get the forks out.

Tagged: Herman Cain, Iowa, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, ron paul

These are the latest available polls in key states for the Republican primary:

U.S. Republican Primary (Rasmussen) 11/2

Cain 26%

Romney 23%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 8%

Iowa  Caucus (Insider Advantage) 11/6

Cain 30%

Romney 15%

Gingrich 12%

Paul 9%

Bachmann 8%

Perry 6%

Santorum 2%

Huntsman 2%

Iowa Caucus (Des Moines Register) 10/23 – 10/26

Cain 27%

Romney 22%

Paul 11%

Gingrich 9%

Bachman 7%

Perry 7%

Santorum 3%

Huntsman 1%

New Hampshire Primary (Rasmussen 10/27)

Romney 41%

Cain 17%

Paul 11%%

Gingrich 6%

Huntsman 6%

Perry 4%

Bachmann 3%

Santorum 1%

South Carolina Primary (Rasmussen) 11/1

Cain 33%

Romney 23%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 9%

Florida Primary (Suffolk/7 News) 10/26 – 10/30

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 11%

Perry 9%

Florida Primary (Quinnipiac) 10/25 – 10/31

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 15%

Perry 7%

Florida Primary (Suffolk/Ch 7) 10/26 – 10/30

Romney 25%

Cain 24%

Gingrich 11%

Perry 9%

Paul 5%

Bachmann 2%

Santorum 1%

Huntsman 1%

Tagged: Herman Cain, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, rick perry, Rick Santorum, ron paul

He’s not running for CD 14 (the former Ron Paul seat). He’ll run for Mike Jackson’s Senate seat if Jackson runs for Congress. If Jackson doesn’t run for Congress, Taylor will run for reelection to the House

Taylor was going to have a hard time vs. SREC member Michael Truncale, a former SREC member, and former congressman Steve Stockman.  Chris Peden, a former Friendswood city council member, is also considered to be a likely entrant. Friendswood is a rich source of votes in northern Galveston County.

As I noted in an earlier post, if Taylor remains in the House, he has to be considered as a potential rival to Straus.

Tagged: congressional district 14, ron paul

On Tuesday [I tweeted (based on various reports) that Larry Taylor, the House GOP caucus chair, was going to run for Ron Paul's congressional seat--the point being that if he did so, this would be highly beneficial for Joe Straus, as Taylor could emerge as a potential rival for speaker, if he stayed in the House.

Minutes after my tweet went public, I received this e-mail from a well connected Fort Bend County GOP activist:

How sure of a bet do you think he [Taylor] is in the CD 14 race? When I worked for DeLay, I know they met frequently and were friends. Many of the staff wanted him [Taylor] to run to replace [DeLay]. When I talked to [former congressman Steve] Stockman this morning he had just spoken to Larry and Larry told him he wanted to run for the Mike Jackson senate seat and that the travel back and forth to DC didn’t appeal to him. Of course, he could have just been blowing smoke.

The new CD 14 includes southern Brazoria (Angleton, Lake Jackson), Galveston, and Jefferson counties. It is almost entirely a coastal district. CD 36, which Jackson is said to have his eye on, includes the Clear Lake area on the west side of Galveston Bay and runs north into rural East Texas.

* * * *

1:48 p.m. I just had a conversation with Rep. Taylor. He is “seriously considering” running for CD 14. He thinks it is important to “get in quick.” He expects multiple candidates to enter the contest, including Steve Stockman and Nick Lampson. I asked if he considered challenging Straus for speaker. He did not rank that among his top options. I think Taylor is a pretty sure bet to enter the race for CD 14.

Close followers of Texas politics will recall that Stockman won a monumental upset by defeating longtime Democratic powerhouse Jack Brooks, of Beaumont, in the Republican sweep of 1994. Taylor vs. Stockman would be a significant race.

UPDATE: SREC member Michael Truncale will be in the race. Just got a presser from the Eppstein firm.

Tagged: congressional district 14, larry taylor, michael truncale, nick lampson, ron paul, steve stockman

No surprise here. A WMUR/Granite State poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, shows the former Massachusetts governor far in front, Bachmann running second, and everyone else in single digits. The date of the poll was not reported.

The poll results (773 likely Republican primary voters, MOE +/- 3/5%):

Romney 35%

Bachmann 12%

Ron Paul 7%

Rudy Giuliani 7%

Perry 4%

Palin 3%

Pawlenty 3%

Huntsman 2%

Cain 2%

Gingrich 1%

Gary Johnson, Buddy Roemer, Rick Santorum < 1%

I trust that readers do not have to be reminded that one of New Hampshire’s leading political operatives is Dave Carney, who is in the Perry camp.

Doug Macatonis, who posted the poll results on the Website “Outside the Beltway,” closes with this observation: “Not much to say here other than one wonders if anyone will seriously contest New Hampshire.”

Tagged: dave carney, Herman Cain, John Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, mitt romney, newt gingrich, rick perry, ron paul, Rudy Giuliani, tim pawlenty

From Tom Jensen on the Public Policy Polling Web site:

Much has been written about the weakness of the 2012 Republican Presidential candidate field but what I think might be most remarkable about the leading quartet of Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich  is that they’ve all become more unpopular and by quite a good bit since we started monthly national 2012 polling in April of 2009. The fact that the more Americans are exposed to them, the less they like them certainly does not bode well for their competitiveness next year.

* In April 2009 Huckabee’s favorability was +8 at 42/34. Now it’s -7 at 35/42, for a 15 point drop over the last two years. His net drop has been 25 points with Democrats, 7 points with Republicans, and 19 points with independents.

* In April 2009 Palin’s favorability was -7 at 42/49. Now it’s -22 at 35/57, for a 15 point drop over the last two years. Her net drop has been 19 points with Democrats, 18 points with Republicans, and 19 points with independents. (more…)

Tagged: Gary Johnson, George W. Bush, haley barbour, jeb bush, jon huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, mitch daniels, mitt romney, newt gingrich, oliver stone, Rand Paul, rick perry, Rick Santorum, rob johnson, ron paul, sarah palin, tim pawlenty

The Morning News reports that the Texas congressman is considering a run for the Senate. [I am having trouble with the link.] Paul is not going to be able to resist the chance to serve in the Senate alongside his son. If he runs, who is going to beat him? The guy with the most money and name ID is Dewhurst, but he doesn’t have a constituency. He is the essence of an establishment Republican. Roger Williams has the same problem. The remaining hopefuls are going to have to compete for the same constituencies that will gravitate to Paul — the Tea Party, the rurals, and the old white guys. Paul can raise money nationally. He has been doing it for years. Elizabeth Ames Jones has nowhere to go. Michael Williams might get some traction because he has Tea Party support. Ted Cruz has never run a race.

The problem with having Ron Paul represent Texas in the United States Senate is that Paul doesn’t chase after federal money. It’s against his principles. Forget money for NASA, for highways, for universities, for military bases. He will cost Texas hundreds of millions of dollars in foregone federal aid. Paul will have none of it. He is a unique type of politician. He represents principles rather than people. If he chooses to run, he will be very difficult to defeat. And Texas will never get back a dime of the money its taxpayers send to Washington.

Tagged: david dewhurst, Elizabeth Ames Jones, michael williams, Roger Williams, ron paul, Ted Cruz

I haven’t previously paid much attention to the candidacy of Debra Medina, of Wharton, for the Republican nomination for governor, but when the Rasmussen poll shows Hutchison ahead of Perry by 2% and Medina gets 3%, perhaps it’s time to pay attention. This race is fertile ground for a wild-card candidate to be a game-changer. First, as the numbers already show, Medina could throw Perry and Hutchison into a runoff. Second, because Perry and Hutchison despise each other, and because each is going to try to destroy the other, the two leading candidates are likely to be bloodied and unattractive come March 2. Medina will be the way for voters to register a “neither of the above” vote. Third, Medina is a disciple of Ron Paul. This means that she has access to a constituency that already exists.

I’m not saying that Medina is going to win the race, of course. I do believe that she has the ability to wreak havoc on the two leading contenders — Perry, because they are courting the same constituency, and Hutchison, because she is a second woman in the race.

Earlier this month, R. G. Ratcliffe blogged about a letter from Paul that stops just short of endorsing Media. Some outtakes from the letter:

* I would like to introduce you to a good friend of mine, Debra Medina. I have known Debra for over ten years and have always been impressed by her drive and commitment to principle. Debra has been a real defender of Liberty both in her home town of Wharton and across the state of Texas.

* Debra has for years been a key supporter and member of my campaign team. As chairman of the Wharton County Republican Party, she has stood up to the big government establishment and fought to hold our party accountable to our platform and our conservative Texas values.

* Because of her leadership and organizational skills, I asked Debra to serve on the board of directors of my national grassroots action group, Campaign for Liberty, where she has played an important role in our fight to defend our Constitution.

* In addition to her political accomplishments, I am proud of Debra for the person she is. Debra Medina is a loving wife, a home school mother of two talented honor students, and a successful business owner.

* I am proud to call Debra Medina a friend, and as a fellow Texan, I encourage you to get to know her. Debra is exploring a run for higher office and would appreciate your input on her effort.

One key question is whether Medina will have access to Ron Paul’s fundraising sources and mailing list. I would expect that the answer will be yes, and, if so, her impact on the race will increase geometrically.

Tagged: Debra Medina, kay bailey hutchison, rick perry, ron paul