She’s a media personality now. There was no way she could run for president when a majority of the Republican electorate doesn’t want her to.

Tagged: media personalities, sarah palin

I thought Perry and Palin were buddies. She came to Texas to endorse him against Bill White in December 09. But her “crony capitalism” attack on Perry was an indication that she sees an opening for her to be the nominee. If she can weaken Perry, and he falters, the tea party crowd will be looking for somebody they can get behind. Palin would be their dream candidate. She is lying behind the log, just waiting for an opportunity. Remember, McCain was nowhere in 08 and came back to win the nomination.

What about the polls that say she can’t win, that her negatives are too high? What about the fact that she quit as governor? Doesn’t matter. She is far and away the most popular Republican with the dominant faction of the party. Republican women in particular adore her.  She can stir a crowd more than Perry can. Perry is going to take a lot more hits. Palin can watch from the sidelines and make occasional appearances in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. She is strongest as a non-candidate, who can let her potential rivals cut each other up while she hurls broadsides at them from the sidelines. Her “crony capitalism” attack on Perry was a direct hit. There is more ammunition where that came from. Lots of ammunition.

Granted, it’s going to be tricky. She’s going to have to time her entry into the race perfectly. But I think she’s the only Republican who doesn’t have to build an organization. It’s there, waiting for her, in Iowa, in New Hampshire, in every state. About those polls that say she can’t win: Many Republicans believe that the country is turning away from Obama, that he will not be electable come November of 2012, and whoever gets the GOP nomination wins. They may be right. I think Palin is playing her cards very smartly. She has the biggest following of any Republican, by far. She has 100% name identification. She is a free agent. I think she’s intent upon running, and I think Rick Perry had better watch out.

Tagged: republican presidential primary, rick perry, sarah palin

I would have said no, until Newsweek unleashed its megacoverage of Sarah Palin. She hints broadly that she is looking at running and that she can win. Palin eclipses Perry in every way — name ID, loyal following, fundraising ability, celebrity status. The Palin buzz created by Newsweek stepped all over the Perry buzz, which hasn’t been very loud recently.

The International Business Times, a UK online publication, did a derivative story on the Newsweek piece. Here’s an excerpt:

Decision day is fast approaching for Sarah Palin; the former governor of Alaska has indicated her time frame for making her decision. Sarah Plain said: ‘You know, August and September, you do have to start laying out a plan if you are to be one to throw your hat in the ring, so that’s basically the time frame,’ Palin told Sean Hannity during an appearance Wednesday night on Fox News.

It has been a relatively quiet month for Sarah Palin but over the past week it has become clearer that she feels she can not only win the Republican nomination but defeat President Obama in a national election. She clearly feels that she is the right candidate for the Republicans and has continued her attack on the candidates that have already announced themselves. ‘I’m not wholly confident that we have that field set yet that that one individual is in the field,’ Palin said. ‘So I’m still thinking about being one that would offer myself up in the name of service, knowing confidently that I have those common-sense, fiscally conservative, pro-private sector experience and ideas that can be put to good work for this country.’

In an open interview with Newsweek, the former governor of Alaska said: ‘If it came down to the family just saying, ‘please, mom, don’t do this,’ then that would be the deal-killer for me, because your families gotta be in it with you.’

Sarah Palin said to Newsweek: ‘I believe that I can win a national election. The people of America are desperate for positive change, and deserving of positive change, to get us off of this wrong track.’

* * * *

Many political pros believe that Palin is unelectable, as I do. But she is likely to play a large role in the campaign, even as a noncandidate. She and Perry have been allies for a long time. When Palin talks about wanting to see more entrants into the GOP presidential race, I think one of the people she wants to see is Perry. Palin can’t be the king in this race, but she can be the kingmaker, and I would not be surprised if the beneficiary turns out to be Perry.

Tagged: presidential campaign, rick perry, sarah palin

Once upon a time, not so long ago, in a faraway land called Pennsylvania, a woman named Sarah Palin brought 200 protest cookies to school for children at the Plumstead Christian School – because she had read a report – mistaken as it turns out – that the state was going to ban such sweets from public school parties.

Sarah mocked the policy as a “nanny state run amok.” She was there to fight for the freedom of sweet treats. “Who should be making the decisions on what you eat … in school, choices: Should it be government or should it be the parents?” Sarah asked her crowd. “It should be the parents.”

Oh, no, said I, if this is true, then Texas has three of the biggest nannies in the land: Susan Combs, Todd Staples and Rick Perry. And the Legislature has been nannying up a storm as of late, seeking to impose government dictates on its citizens for their own good.

Let’s start at the beginning, when government was wise, children were wonderful and we all wanted what was best for our future generations.
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Tagged: abortion, dan patrick, nanny state, rainy day fund, rick perry, sarah palin, susan combs

From Tom Jensen on the Public Policy Polling Web site:

Much has been written about the weakness of the 2012 Republican Presidential candidate field but what I think might be most remarkable about the leading quartet of Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich  is that they’ve all become more unpopular and by quite a good bit since we started monthly national 2012 polling in April of 2009. The fact that the more Americans are exposed to them, the less they like them certainly does not bode well for their competitiveness next year.

* In April 2009 Huckabee’s favorability was +8 at 42/34. Now it’s -7 at 35/42, for a 15 point drop over the last two years. His net drop has been 25 points with Democrats, 7 points with Republicans, and 19 points with independents.

* In April 2009 Palin’s favorability was -7 at 42/49. Now it’s -22 at 35/57, for a 15 point drop over the last two years. Her net drop has been 19 points with Democrats, 18 points with Republicans, and 19 points with independents. (more…)

Tagged: Gary Johnson, George W. Bush, haley barbour, jeb bush, jon huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, mitch daniels, mitt romney, newt gingrich, oliver stone, Rand Paul, rick perry, Rick Santorum, rob johnson, ron paul, sarah palin, tim pawlenty

In my never ending effort to keep readers er, abreast, of simmering controversies, I bring you this report from NEWSMAX, a conservative Web site, published after Sarah Palin appeared on Fox News:

Sarah Palin shot down rumors Friday night that she had undergone an operation to receive breast implants.

“Breast implants – did you have them or not, because that’s all over the Internet about you, and the mainstream media,” Greta Van Susteren asked Palin on her Fox News “On the Record” show.

“Boobgate is all over the Internet right now because there’s a lot of, I guess, bored, idle bloggers and reporters with nothing else to talk about,” Palin replied. “No, I have not had implants. I can’t believe that we’re even talking about this.

“I think a report like that is about as real and truthful as those reports that Todd and I are divorcing, or that I bought a place in the Hamptons, or that Trig is not my own child. And we still put up with that kind of garbage, too. … It’s amazing.”

The rumors began swirling after Palin was photographed recently at the Belmont Stakes horse race wearing a form-fitting top.

“To be judged on or to be talked about appearance, say, chest size, it makes me wear layers, it makes me have to waste time figuring out what am I going to wear so nobody will look at an area that I don’t need them to look at,” Palin said. “I want them to hear what it is that I’m saying. It ends up wasting time, and that’s just very, very unfortunate.”

Tagged: sarah palin

This was the big takeaway from the pundits on election night: It was a great night for women and for Tea Party activists. Here is a sample of the punditry:

–Mark McKinnon, writing in the Daily Beast: “Voters in 12 states expressed their anger with Washington and special interests Tuesday night by defeating a $10 million union campaign to unseat a senator who had the courage to stand up against their special interest legislation, promoting women outsiders who have run public companies but never held office, and supporting candidates aligned with Tea Party values. And as clear evidence of voter desire to the shake up the good old boy network in politics, women ruled the night.”

–Jonathan Alter, writing on the Newsweek Web site: “We already know that this is the year of outsiders, but it may be that the most successful outsiders aren’t Tea Party Foxulists but women of all stripes. With only six women governors, 16 women senators, and 74 women in the House, female candidates are fresher for voters looking for change. The problem for Republicans is that the wacky ones might hamstring the serious ones.” We already know that this is the year of outsiders, but it may be that the most successful outsiders aren’t Tea Party Foxulists but women of all stripes. With only six women governors, 16 women senators, and 74 women in the House, female candidates are fresher for voters looking for change. The problem for Republicans is that the wacky ones might hamstring the serious ones.” (more on that point later–pb)

[Alter continues] “In Arkansas, being a woman helped Sen. Blanche Lincoln pull off a huge upset in a runoff over challenger Bill Halter, who led by a comfortable margin in almost all pre-primary polls. Bill Clinton campaigned for Lincoln, which no doubt helped, and Lincoln’s anti-derivatives amendment in the Senate gave her some populist cred. But I’d argue that she won as much because she’s a woman as anything else. In the public imagination, the stereotypical Washington hack just isn’t wearing a skirt. So while the conventional wisdom now favors Republican Rep. John Boozman in the general election, Lincoln’s come-from-behind win might energize her supporters and make that race competitive after all, a big turnaround.”

[I would argue that the reason Lincoln won her primary--in addition to her gender--is that her opponent, light gov Bill Halter, was the candidate of organized labor, which was seeking to punish Lincoln for voting against labor's pet card-check legislation. Lincoln was able to establish a narrative of being an independent underdog who was being bullied for voting her conscience -- a good position to be in at a moment when voters are angry at power cliques and the political establishment. In fact, labor isn't really "establishment" in Arkansas, which is one of the least unionized states. As Alter noted, Lincoln will be a big underdog in the general election against Boozman. Fivethirtyeight.com assesses the probability of a Republican victory as 92%.]

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Tagged: blanche lincoln, harry reid, meg whitman, sarah palin, tea party

I drove to Houston for the rally yesterday. The event was held at a huge complex called the Richard E. Berry Educational Support center on Barker-Cypress Road in northwest Houston. The surrounding area is entirely outside the Houston city limits and is unincorporated. A colleague at Texas Monthly who lives nearby told me that 800,000 people live in the area. I would say that I can’t verify that, except that she is head of our fact-checking department.

The Berry center is a lavish athletic complex. It was built with the proceeds of a 2001 bond issue for the Cy-Fair school district. The outside of the complex was a handsome red brick building with an impressive facade. Inside, I stepped onto a tile floor with marble squares at regular intervals. Between the building and the street was a parking lot large enough that, had it been grass, could sustain a hunting lease. This was not a monument to the fiscal conservatism that the two main attractions claim to embrace.

The venue for the rally was a rectangular arena with a concrete floor. A basketball court can be placed on top. Two tiers of permanent seating — no benches — rose to the top of the arena on all sides. The school district says that the capacity is 8,300. The seating was around two-thirds full so I would estimate the attendance at around 5,000 to 6,000. Published estimates ranged from 6,000 to 8,000 to 15,000. No way on anything much above 6K. Still, six thousand people — some of whom were already lining up at 9 a.m. on Super Bowl Sunday — is a huge turnout.

Hand-painted banners were taped to the walls. “TEXAS VALUES … PROVEN LEADERSHIP … PROUD OF TEXAS … GOV PERRY TRUE TEXAN … HANDS OFF MY PISTOL … HOME SCHOOLERS 4 PERRY … STOP BAILOUTS,” they read. A band played the theme from “How the West was won.” A woman in the lower seats began to clap in an effort to stir up the crowd. Giant screens on either side of the state flashed instructions on how to tweet, how to follow Perry on Twitter, and how to set up your home headquarters for Perry.

Dan Patrick was the master of ceremonies for the rally. “One thing Governor Perry and I have in common is that we make use of the social media,” he said. He told the audience, “When you leave today, the Perry campaign will be handing out packets with the name of a Republican who hasn’t made up his mind yet. Call them and tell them you are supporting Rick Perry. Then send the results back to the campaign.” Later, the screens advised the audience to “Text “Fired Up” to 95613 for instant messages.”

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Tagged: Bob Bullock, dan patrick, rick perry, sarah palin, Ted Nugent

Sarah Palin’s appearance at a Perry campaign rally is set for February 7–Super Bowl Sunday.

Tagged: rick perry, sarah palin

So says Ken Rudin, who writes NPR’s daily political blog, Political Junkie. Dismissing House and Senate Republicans, he focuses on governors as the future of the GOP. This narrowing of the list omits Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich, among others. Here is his list:

1. Tim Pawlenty (MN)
2. Jon Huntsman (UT)
3. Haley Barbour (MS)
4. Bobby Jindal (LA)
5. Charlie Crist (FL)
6. Mitch Daniels (IN)
7. Sarah Palin (AK)
8. Rick Perry (TX)
9. Mark Sanford (SC)
10. Jodi Rell (CT)
11. Bob Riley (AL)
12. Sonny Perdue (GA)
13. Mike Rounds (SD)
14. John Hoeven (ND)
15. Butch Otter (ID)
16. Dave Heineman (NE)
17. Jim Douglas (VT)
18. Don Carcieri (RI)
19. Linda Lingle (HI)
20. Jan Brewer (AZ)
21. Arnold Schwarzenegger (CA)
22. Jim Gibbons (NV)

This is not exactly a list of giants.

1. Pawlenty is a solid governor who should have been McCain’s pick for vice president. His recent announcement that he would not seek reelection in 2010 is attributed to (choose one) the possibility that he could be defeated by a Democrat in a liberal state; or that he has made up his mind to run for president in 2012.

2. Huntsman, who speaks fluent Mandarin, is Obama’s nominee to be ambassador to China. He is a Mormon, a religious affiliation that was a disadvantage for Mitt Romney in 2008. Huntsman addressed the issue on Fox, in a 2006 interview with Neil Cavuto: “And people hear about Mormons, and they think, gosh, they are a different breed or culture. But, you know, we have five U.S. senators. We have 18 in the House of Representatives. We have some of the great CEOs in America. We are just normal people, like everybody else. And, for some reason or another, people mischaracterize us.”

3. Barbour is a shrewd politician and political operative — he’s a former tobacco lobbyist who looks the part — who knows his way around Washington. He has just inherited the chairmanship of the Republican Governors Association from the lovelorn Mark Sanford. Asked this morning by Face the Nation’s Bob Schieffer about whether he might run in 2012, Barbour said, “I don’t have any plan to. I don’t have any intention to. Right now, I think every Republican who wants to rebuild our party needs to be focused on elections of 2009 and ‘10. I mentioned the New Jersey and the Virginia governors’ races, both very competitive and very important. We have 37 governors’ races next year, plus the entire House of Representatives, a third of the Senate. I’m not going to give any thought to running for anything until after the 2010 election. I’d be very surprised if I ended up running for president, but I can’t just say flatly no. But I would be very surprised. My wife would be even more surprised.”

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Tagged: 2012, bobby jindal, charlie crist, gop governors, haley barbour, jon huntsman, mitch daniels, number 8, rick perry, sarah palin, tim pawlenty