[Editors note: an earlier version of this post incorrectly stated that the Texas Association of School Administrators and the Texas Association of School Boards were among the groups that met with Senator Royce West last weekend to discuss the school finance plan. Neither TASA nor TASB were present at a meeting with West. However, sources close to West confirm that the TASB did convey to him that it was ambivalent about the possible benefit of a special session. The post has been corrected.]

The test pilots of the 1950s had a saying for when one of their own messed up and lost an aircraft. The pilot, they said, had “screwed the pooch.” Senator Wendy Davis, her Democratic colleagues, and their consultants have—in the lingo of the test pilots—screwed the pooch.

Davis’ session-ending filibuster on the public school funding formulas was hailed earlier this week as a noble stand for education and a kick in the shins of the possible presidential aspirations of Governor Rick Perry. But after talking with many sources this week who have intimate knowledge of the events leading up to the filibuster, I have a different view of it. Now it looks far more like a pyrrhic victory that increases the possibility that bills will pass that will harm teachers and the Texas Democratic Party for the decade to come. (more…)

Tagged: filibuster, rick perry, senate, special session, wendy davis

After last night’s dramatic play by Senator Davis, the calculation this morning seems to be: Will the Dems fare better or worse in a special? There is still time to undo the maneuver, if six Democrats join the Rs in a 4/5 vote to suspend the rules today. Perry’s spokesperson promised even before Davis pulled the trigger that there would be consequences if the Democrats went nuclear. (You have to wonder if there will also be consequences for Straus and Pitts, for waiting so long to debate fiscal matters and school finance–if, as Harvey Kronberg observed yesterday, “debate” is the right term for last night’s brief treatment of the second most important bill of the session.)

But what about those “consequences” for the Democrats? It’s hard to see the budget deal getting any worse from their perspective. What are the Rs going to do? Move more money out of Medicaid, making the 2013 supplemental, already estimated at around $5 billion, even larger? Cut public ed even more? House members could barely swallow the cuts they had to make to their ISDs this time around. (Ten more no’s in the House, and Davis wouldn’t have had to filibuster anything.) There’s always sanctuary cities, which died in the Senate when the Ds declined to suspend the rules to debate it. But did the Rs ever really want to vote on that one? It’s no secret the leadership has always been split on draconian immigration bills–big money donors like Bob Perry always fight them, and forward thinking consultants tell them it’s bad for the long term prospects of the party in a state that is now majority-minority.

This was one of those times when it was useful to have the 2/3 rule, so the Dems could be safely blamed. Of course, in a special, the rule wouldn’t apply. It’s up to Perry to decide what is on the agenda, and he has already promised a special as early as tomorrow. Difficult calculations all around this morning. One assumes that running over Davis in redistricting was not a difficult calculation. Then again, there’s nothing more dangerous than a politician with nothing to lose.

NATE BLAKESLEE

Tagged: special session, wendy davis

The danger of a special session for a governor is that he won’t get what he wants, and in failing to get it, will open himself to charges of failed leadership. That is why Perry planned to limit the session to the Sunset Safety Net bill that will continue the existence of TxDOT, the Department of Insurance, the Racing Commission, and other agencies, and to authorizing $2 billion in highway construction bonds that had previously been approved by the voters.

But Perry also wants the Legislature to renew the authority for Comprehensive Development Agreements, the controversial financing tool that privatizes toll roads, and to establish an infrastructure bank, managed by TxDOT, that would lend money for road projects. This is political dynamite. Toll roads are Perry’s biggest political liability. They have little support other than business groups. They are particularly unpopular with captive suburban commuters who are the key voters in a governor’s race.

This is the controversial language in HB 1, pertaining to the bonds, the proceeds of which may be used “to provide money for deposit in the Texas Transportation Revolving Fund or similar revolving fund authorized by law, to be used for the purpose of making loans for highway improvement projects as provided by law.” Guess who administers the intrastructure bank? TxDOT, of course. This has many members worried, lest TxDOT lend money that would aid the cause of privatizing roads. One of the concerns, for example, is that the bank would loan money to local toll agencies, which could then sell the project to Cintra or another private entity. It is my understanding that Chisum will have an amendment to provide safeguards against hanky-panky. HB 3, which would reauthorize CDAs, has the safeguards, but, as has been reported elsewhere, the bill lacks the support to become law — no one but TxDOT likes CDAs — and has not been scheduled for debate.

These are not good times for toll projects. “The credit market collapse and political opposition have all but killed the U.S. highway-privatization trend,” Barron’s reported in May. That same article quoted Toll Road News, an Internet publication: “Toll-road traffic decline has been more severe than in any other post-war recession.” Toll road traffic is down by 6%, and truck traffic, which accounts for half the usage on toll roads, is down 50%.

The governor’s fight for more toll roads and more Comprehensive Development Agreements makes no sense politically. It puts the spotlight directly on his most controversial policy. It’s a heaven-sent opportunity for Kay Bailey Hutchison to differentiate herself from Perry, but when I spoke to a Hutchison adviser today, I heard the same line, that she does not want to engage with the Perry at this time. If not now, on the best issue for her, when?

Tagged: comprehensive development agreements, highway construction bonds, rick perry, special session, toll roads, txdot

Earlier speculation was that Perry would wait to call a special session until after the Republican primary. Now, according to a couple of sources who are usually knowledgeable about the goings-on in the governor’s office, Perry wants a short special session around a month from now — I’d say between the Fourth of July holiday and July 20, which is the first day of the NCSL meeting in Philadelphia. The NCSL trip is a good incentive for lawmakers to get their business done in a hurry. The call would be limited to two items: the Sunset safety net bill and authorization for the $2 billion in highway bonds. Voter ID? Probably not. He has to prepare for a general election campaign as well as a primary, and putting the spotlight on a partisan political issue would not help him.

If this comes to pass, it seems like a pretty good strategy to me. Opening the call to more issues is always risky business for a governor. Perry has not fared well in previous special sessions; readers may remember when Keffer offered the governor’s school finance plan and it was voted down without a single aye vote. Get them into town fast, get them out of town fast — that’s the right plan for a special session.

There could be some tough votes ahead. Democrats are already unhappy that the review of worker’s comp was pushed back in the safety net bill, as was scrutiny of the Texas Department of Insurance. These will be contentious issues. I would not be surprised to see other Sunset reviews delayed as well. Perry is running in 2010 for a term that expires in January 2015. He is a very hands-on governor when it comes to running the executive branch. If he can put off the Sunset scrutiny of the controversial agencies until the end of his term, he won’t have to put up with criticism of TxDOT or Democratic pro-consumer proposals for the Department of Insurance.

Tagged: july, rick perry, special session

You can see the train wreck coming: a special session over the budget and the stimulus package. Speculation is rampant that Perry will veto the appropriations bill, but he may not even have a bill to veto. The difficulties of melding the budget with the stimulus funds (and the rules that come with them) and the rainy day fund may not be doable in a regular session–especially in the House, where the lack of floor action means that the Straus team (whoever that is) has had no experience in working the floor. The machinery broke down on something as simple as Garnet Coleman’s resolution expressing no confidence in TxDOT a couple of weeks ago. The resolution didn’t lay out for the requisite hour, and nobody got the word out to Republicans that they were supposed to vote for it. The conservative Republicans have held their fire thus far, but you know they will come after the appropriations bill. The first test will be the Eiland hurricane bill when it comes to the floor. Eiland wants to use the rainy day fund, and that requires a supermajority vote. The absence of floor discipline means that spending bills will be subject to attack from the left and the right, the former because the spending isn’t enough and the latter because it is too much. This is an accident waiting to happen, and it will play right into Perry’s game plan.

Which is: dance with the ones that brung him, namely the Republican right. He has never given any indication of trying to broaden his support. His rejection of the unemployment stimulus package was straight from the same playbook he has always followed. The special session will be no different. Is this smart politics? The Republican party has lost a lot of ground during the Perry years, and the disenchantment with the hard right, nationally and in Texas, shows up in the polls. But Perry shows no indication that he seeks to reclaim the support of these disaffected Republicans. I suppose the question is, just how disaffected are they? If they no longer vote in Republican primaries, so much the better for Perry. The risk, for Perry, is that they will vote, and that they will vote for Hutchison.

Speaking of whom: Where is she? Hutchison hasn’t been heard from much. I know from the story that I wrote on the governor’s race in February that their strategy is not to engage with Perry. That is the advice that Karl Rove gave them. (There is no love lost between Rove and Perry, going back to Perry’s 1998 race for lieutenant governor. Rove wanted Bush to demonstrate his strength among Hispanic voters by carrying El Paso, and the more Hispanics he turned out, the more votes he produced for Perry’s Democratic opponent, John Sharp–at least that’s the way Perry saw it.) Hutchison is going to have to start positioning herself in this race. Perry wants to make her the candidate of Washington (as opposed to himself, the candidate of Texas), and she is going to have to burnish her GOP credentials by taking on Obama and the Democrats. Perry is not going to let her run on her personality.

So, as the special session is meeting in early July, the governor’s race will be heating up too. In the good old summertime.

Tagged: budget, special session, Texas house, txdot