This is an analysis of the race that was developed by the Paddie camp. It is published as it was sent to me. Quoting the analysis:

Basically the district can be divided into 3 parts:

1). Christian base. This is Shelby and Sabine [counties] that are currently in Christian’s District.  In the last GOP primary, these two combine for 26% of the vote of the newly configured district.

2). Neutral. This is Cass and Marion which are now in HD 1.  George Lavender [the incumbent in HD 1 --pb] is not endorsing in this race.  These two combine for 17.69% of the vote.  Like Paddie’s Harrison County, they are on the North part of the district.

3). Paddie base. Paddie is Mayor of Marshall, the biggest county, and broadcasts his radio show countywide.  This county alone, was a huge 44% of the 2008 vote, 39.37% of the 2010 vote.  But Paddie grew up and graduated from High School in Carthage, Panola County.  His family runs the radio station there in Carthage. Panola had 17.18% of the vote in 2010.  These two Paddie “base” counties combined for 56.31% of the vote (of the new district) in 2010.  Paddie also lived in Shelby County (Christian’s home) and is not without support there, but would likely cede most of the support there to Christian.

So, the scenario [which I described in yesterday's post--pb] of the smaller counties ganging up against the big county is quite less likely in this district.  Paddie will be the hometown favorite for more than 56% of the Republican voters and he has a better than even chance of getting his share of his next door neighbors Cass and Marion.  Jefferson, Texas (Marion County) is 17 miles from Marshall and 72 miles away from Center, where Christian lives.  Linden (County seat of Cass) is a full 100 miles away from Christian’s hometown but a short drive for Paddie.

To summarize, Paddie starts out with a 20% advantage in home county GOP vote size.  When you extend to their broader bases, the advantage goes to +30% for Paddie.

And the two remaining smaller counties do not provide much comfort for Christian.  They are clearly in Paddie’s backyard.  Any appeal to “I am from a small county and so are you” would probably not be too effective.

[end of analysis]

My comment:

No one should be surprised that the district has been drawn in a way that makes it difficult for Christian to be reelected. Clearly, the Straus team would like to see someone else representing HD-9. What I don’t know is whether Solomons et al drew the district with the aim of eliminating Christian, or whether the population numbers were such that the district fell into place naturally. There really wasn’t anywhere for the district to go. It was blocked on the east by the Louisiana state line, on the north by HD-1, on the south by the Golden Triangle, and on the west by the relatively large counties of Nacogdoches and Rusk.

Tagged: Chris Paddie, George Lavender, House redistricting, Joe Straus, wayne christian

Marshall mayor Chris Paddie will seek the Republican nomination for District 9, a redrawn district that runs along the Texas-Louisiana border. The district is currently represented by conservative stalwart Wayne Christian. Paddie’s home county, Harrison, is the biggest county in the district. This will be one of the most-watched races in the state, if only because Christian is one of the most high-profile representatives. That Paddie comes from the most populous couny is not necessarily an advantage. Sometimes the smaller counties gang up on the big county. In addition to serving as mayor, Paddie hosts a radio talk show.

Tagged: Chris Paddie, District 9, primary battle, wayne christian

Tagged: On the Lege, texas conservative coalition, wayne christian

A group of Republican House members has injected themselves into Republican primary races in an effort to defeat their own colleagues. In my book, this is bottom-of-the-barrel behavior, but these folks are the type to do it. Those inclined toward eating their own young are Leo Berman, Wayne Christian, Betty Brown, Phil King, and Kelly Hancock. Their prime target is Chuck Hopson, and, according to the Hopson camp, they are being assisted in their efforts by former state senator Drew Nixon, who is best known for being busted for soliciting prostitution on the night before his swearing in, and Todd Gallaher, the former Bob Duell staffer who … well, I’ll yield to the Morning News for an introduction:

A veteran Capitol staffer resigned Monday [3/11/08] over allegations he impersonated both a state representative [Juan Garcia] and a newspaper reporter in the last month – first to sway a state primary race, then to glean information on an ethics complaint against his boss.

Todd Gallaher had been on leave from Republican state Sen. Bob Deuell’s office since last month, when he used an e-mail address that looked like it belonged to a Democratic lawmaker to send out embarrassing photos of a South Texas sheriff up for re-election.

As recently as Thursday night, however, he was back in Dr. Deuell’s Capitol office, apparently identifying himself as a Dallas Morning News reporter in a phone call with a California ethics watchdog.

Hopson has the endorsement of Perry, Hutchison, Cornyn, Dewhurst, Staples, Eltife, Joe Barton, and, according to his camp, 80% of the House Rs.

King and Hancock are also working to defeat Vicki Truitt, and Betty Brown weighed in against Todd Smith. (A caller who was involved in the battle over the local option gasoline tax said that Truitt and/or Carona had threatened to try to defeat members in North Texas who voted against the local option gasoline tax. I have not found any confirming evidence either of the threat or of either member carrying through with the threat, and the Truitt campaign vehemently denied the accusation.)

This is all about (1) ideological purity and (2) speaker politics and the continuing efforts of the Craddickite core to destablize Straus.

Tagged: betty brown, chuck hopson, Kelly Hancock, leo berman, phil king, wayne christian

Eiland and Truitt just engaged in a major debate over Teacher Retirement System bill that expanded the types of companies eligible to offer 403(b) retirement accounts to certify with the Teacher Retirement System of Texas (TRS). Eiland offered an amendment sought by the Houston Independent School District. Truitt, aided by Christian, fought it vigorously. I will readily admit that I couldn’t follow a word of it, nor could I detect any ideological reason why the head of the Conservative Coalition would be involved in the debate. So why am I writing about it? Because this was obviously an issue that was important enough to stir the passions, but no one called for a record vote on Truitt’s motion to table. Straus called for a division vote. There is only one reason for a division vote, and that is to protect members from public scrutiny. I’m all for the new era of cooperation, but letting members hide behind division votes on an issue that must have been important (or else why was Christian banging on the table and Truitt railing at Eiland?) is collusion rather than cooperation. Texas teachers are entitled to know how their representatives voted on this issue. The House has been backsliding into division votes for the last couple of weeks. No one is accountable for his or her votes on important amendments.

This is why I don’t like the constitutional amendment requiring third readings to be a mandatory record vote. Third reading is perfunctory. Second reading is the real test, and often the crucial vote is a second reading amendment, as it was here. Every vote should be a record vote.

Tagged: craig eiland, teacher retirement system, TRS, vicki truitt, wayne christian

This is amendment number one to the Appropriations bill, by Wayne Christian, the chairman of the Conservative Coalition. And he wants to kill the Public Integrity Unit! That’s going to make the Republicans look great.

The proposal is something that had been talked about during the Craddick years–shift the funding to the AG and unleash him to go after Democrats. It is payback for Ronnie Earle going after Tom DeLay et al.

Tagged: public integrity unit, wayne christian

This letter from Wayne Christian, the chair of the Conservative Coalition in the House, went out on April 4 (last Saturday):

Please take time to read the attached letter from the Quorum Report. Please note that Speaker Eiland writes that following the Sunday meeting of the Conservative Coalition [emphasis original], “many of the Republican members of the House became very reluctant or even opposed to using Rainy Day Funds at this time.” [Eiland's letter to colleagues pertained to funding for the hurricane bill that will be on the House floor next week.] This coming Sunday night meeting (6:00 at Whole Foods) Speaker Straus and Chairman Pitts have asked to meet with us. Thus, we met, we agreed, we won, and now we are invited to the “table.”

I am aware of the costs to the most important part of our lives (our families) is significant during this season of session. I can remember from a decade ago sitting on the House floor while listening to debates which were doing nothing but “chubbing” to kill bills, as my wife called and let my daughter tell me she had hit a home run in her softball game. I continue to feel guilty to this day, but I made a commitment both to my God and thousands of folk who have honored me to represent them. Most do not have high paid lobbyists here fighting for them. Just me.

We have heard many of you who ask if we can move our meetings to some “other time” and we have searched for such. I wish we could find some time most of us can come together, but with committees, bill presentations, press conferences, and such…[ellipses original]Sunday evening is simply the time open to most. (Next week will be the Monday night after Easter).

Conservatives find that individually we are very short on power in this session, but together we HAVE and can win. I count only two months left in this session. I would ask you to kiss your spouse, hug your kids (or grandkids, and come early to join us in trying to make this state better for them and those who sent you. These two months are the MOST IMPORTANT of your two years given by your constituents.

“Together We Win!” Divided We ???

* * * *

The letter is interesting because the Conservative Coalition is viewed as one aspect of the opposition to the Straus speakership (the other being Sylvester Turner, alone), and yet the tone of the letter is not oppositional. This reflects the fundamental difficulty of predicting what the House will do as the moment of truth approaches: the debate on the appropriations bill. We are in mid-April, and nobody knows for sure what the teams are.

On the subject of the Rainy Day Fund: I think that the Republicans generally, not just the Conservative Coalition, were never going to vote to dip into the Rainy Day funds–at least not after the stimulus funds became available. This is just too volatile an issue in a Republican primary. Eiland did have to use general revenue for hurricane recovery efforts, and his legislation is now part of the emergency appropriations bill, which means that the pot of money it appropriates cannot be reached by lawmakers who would like to get their hands on the money for their own uses. The stimulus package saved lawmakers from a bloodbath.

Tagged: conservative coalition, wayne christian

HB3152, by Christian. Relating to prohibiting the performance of an abortion on a woman who is not known to be pregnant; providing penalties.

Filed two days ago, Christian’s bill would make it a Class A misdemeanor for a doctor to use drugs or medical instruments commonly used to perform abortions on a female patient if the woman is not pregnant.

My curiosity piqued, I stopped by Christian’s office to ask, essentially, “What gives?”

It seems the office has been made aware that some abortion providers — some years ago —  used to pretend to perform abortions on young women for the purpose of scamming the government for public abortion funds. It worked like this: Scared young woman shows up for a pregnancy exam and it’s negative, but the staff, wanting that abortion money, tells her she’s pregnant.  A doctor then makes the woman undergo what she is made to believe is an abortion.

I know you’re thinking just what Rep. Christian thought: There oughta be a law against that!  So, “just to clarify” the current state of  the Texas penal code, Christian filed the bill, according to a staff member in his office.

Surely this kind of diligence deserves a special award. Thoughts?

Tagged: abortion, wayne christian