Yesterday's post about the Haggerty-Margo race ("Campaign Central 2/17: Dueling Polls in the Haggerty-Margo Race Show Different Results") did not include any details about the internal Haggerty poll or the campaign's tracking poll. I noted this in the post and e-mailed the Haggerty campaign asking for some numbers. I also received several skeptical comments about the Haggerty polls, noting the omission of hard data.
To review, an El Paso Times/News Channel 9 poll released on Sunday showed Margo with a lead of 43% to 31%. Haggerty's campaign responded with an internal poll that showed him with a 46%-37% lead, and an internal tracking poll had him up 48% to 42%.
The Haggerty campaign responded today with details of numbers and methodology:
Both Haggerty polls were of republican primary HISTORY voters (unlike the EPT poll which appears to have used an automated "screen" question to qualify voters). Note: "Republican primary history voters" are actual voters who have participated in previous Republican primaries, as opposed to "likely voters" who self-identify when polled--pb.
December poll was 350 interviews; +5% margin of error.
February poll was 1,000 interviews; +3% margin of error.
All interviews were live, not "automated robo interactive" calling as the EPT survey.
All three polls were conducted prior to Haggerty running any broadcast advertising versus Margo running an estimated $150,000 of tv and radio through last week.
Obviously the December poll is very out of date. The February tracking poll is current.
I will post this information on the site of the original article as well.
- 1 week