I wouldn’t put too much stock in this poll, which was commissioned by Conservative Republicans of Texas, a group headed by a prominent social conservative Dr. Steven Hotze. The Dewhurst camp’s fingerprints are all over it. The Houston Chronicle points out that the polling firm (Dresner, Wickers, Barber, Sanders) has previously done polling for Dewhurst, and that Wickers is a former consultant for Dewhurst. That said, the results seem plausible:
I think it is reasonable to believe that Dewhurst has a shot to win this race without a runoff. If there is a runoff, all bets are off. The voters in the runoff will be hardcore conservatives.