These are the House incumbents whom I believe are in trouble as election day approaches:
Sid Miller – He blew a huge lead and now appears to be headed for a runoff. Incumbents seldom fare well in runoffs.
Jim Landtroop – Same story, second verse. An incumbent in a runoff.
Barbara Nash – Another member of the “incumbent in a runoff” club, with a district that is 80% new voters
Vicki Truitt – She is being challenged by Giovanni Capriglione, who ran a tough race against her in 2010. Truitt probably faces the biggest uphill climb of any incumbent
“Tuffy” Hamilton – Hamilton and James White are two flawed candidates; can Hamilton overcome TLR’s money and Perry’s endorsement of White?
Leo Berman – illness has limited his ability to campaign
Wayne Christian – the Texas Medical Association and Texas Association of Realtors PACs went all-0ut to defeat him; even so, early polling showed him doing well. High turnout in Harrison County (Marshall) could mean trouble.
Chuck Hopson – faces a strong opponent from the largest county (Nacogdoches) in the district. Going to be close–but Hopson’s races always are
Rob Eissler – late starter, slow to get engaged, but has finally pulled ahead
Lance Gooden – how much will losing his mayor’s endorsement affect his race?
David Simpson – conventional wisdom is that he defeats Tommy Merritt
Borris Miles – a re-re-rematch against Al Edwards in a race neither deserves to win
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The big picture here is whether a narrative will emerge from the results tonight, as one did in 2010. Then it was the destruction of the Democratic party. Is this year’s narrative going to be the takeover of the Republican party by the interest groups – Texans for Lawsuit Reform, Empower Texans, TPPF, the pro-life groups, the home schoolers, the tea parties? Or will it be a second round of purification piled on top of last year’s tea party sweep? The answer probably won’t become clear until the runoff elections on July 31.