Gallup: D's take the lead in generic congressional ballot test; other indicators point toward substantial R gains
Tue July 20, 2010 10:10 pm

Gallup describes the Democrats' 49%-43% edge as "the first statistically significant lead" since Gallup began polling the question in March. Gallup further says that the reason for the Democrats' resurgence is a shift in independent voters. 39% favor D's, up from 34%, but still less than 43% of I's who favor R's.

More significant, in my opinion, is that Republican enthusiasm level jumped from 40% to 51%, the highest mark since April. Democratic enthusiasm level remains at a lethargic 28%.

The big question on everybody's minds is whether 2010 will be 1994 redux. The latest Rothenberg Report (a widely read Washington political newsletter) says:

We reiterate our view that substantial Republican gains are inevitable and are increasing our target for most likely GOP gains from 25-30 seats to 28-33 seats. However, it is important to note that considerably larger Republican gains in excess of 39 seats are quite possible.

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