Gallup: Generic congressional ballot = 46 D, 45 R, but...
Thu September 23, 2010 5:55 pm

The August numbers were 49% R, 43% D. So this is a significant shift. But the intensity factor still overwhelmingly favors Republicans. The poll of registered voters (a very large sample in the mid-four digits) finds that 47% of Republicans are "very enthusiastic" about voting this fall, compared to only 28% of Democrats.

As I looked at these numbers, I began to wonder how volatile they are. For example, is there any evidence that minority voters are late deciders? If that is the case, then the enthusiasm gap might narrow as the election gets closer. I couldn't find anything definitive on that subject. I did come across a scholarly article ("Calculating or Capricious: The new politics of late-deciding voters"), by Ian McAllister, but it dwelt on the reasons for what the author says is a "consistent increase in late-deciding voters." It did not address the issue of minority voters at all. The author attributes late-deciding voters to "dealignment" from parties worldwide.

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