Huge numbers for Perry. He turned Romney’s 23-18 lead into a 17-29 deficit in one month.
East: Perry 16%, Romney 17%, Paul 15%
Midwest: Perry 23%, Romney 20%, Paul 18%
South: Perry 39%, Romney 12%, Paul 9%
West: Perry 28%, Romney 22%, Paul 12%
Among voters 65+, Perry leads Romney by 40% to 16%
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Perry is going to be the Republican nominee. His coalition is pretty obvious from these numbers. It’s the South, the evangelicals, and the tea party geezers. What’s more, these elements of his constituency appear to be fiercely loyal. We’ve all seen this before. The only way he can lose in the primary is to make a huge mistake – but he doesn’t make huge mistakes – or be brought down by a major scandal – but he has never been implicated in a major scandal. We might as well skip the primary and go straight to the general election.