Good news for Hutchison (just kidding)
Fri November 13, 2009 10:49 am

Yes, good news: She's only down by 11 points in today's Rasmussen poll, compared to 12 points in the recent UT/Texas Tribune poll. Perry, meanwhile, is only four points (the same number Medina is getting) short of 50%. The temptation is to say that the race is over, but I'm going to resist it, because of two factors. One is that the media campaign hasn't started yet. The other is that Hutchison may yet find a way to enlarge primary turnout, though the constant negative attacks of the two campaigns is more likely to suppress turnout.

May I engage in some hindsight here? What if, a year ago, when Hutchison first indicated her intention to run, she had opened with a TV offensive in January 09, all positive, about her record in the Senate and why she was running for governor. Remember, a year ago she had a big advantage over Perry in the polls, and a big edge in money. He couldn't raise money because of the prohibition against fundraising before and during a legislative session. She could have run a few spots, then gone dark, then run another series of spots. It would have built momentum, and it would have provided the rationale for her candidacy that is still missing. Now, it's too late.

What a debacle.

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