I spoke with Jim Henson, co-founder of the University of Texas poll, and he said that the PPP poll was “within the range of plausibility.” Henson has charted all the polls in this race, and the PPP poll was not an outlier. He expects to have a UT/Texas Tribune poll out soon.
I asked him his opinion of Public Policy Polling. He pointed out that this was the firm that had Hutchison +25 over Perry last winter. He did not find fault with other numbers in the poll, such as the party identification (75% R, 22% I, 3% D), race (81% white, 12% Hispanic, 4% African American, 4% Other), and age (the figure I used was 68% 45 and older). Henson noted that in the 2008 exit polling, 51% of the voters were over 50.