"I can say with almost perfect confidence that Juan Garcia will win re-election this November 4th"
Fri October 10, 2008 5:29 pm

The quote is from Jim Dow of Texas 20/20 PAC. He issued a statement today claiming victory in Garcia’s race against Todd Hunter. One would think that this is something Hunter could use against Garcia – seems to me that it would make a pretty good TV spot. I would be scared to death to say that my side had won 25 days out from an election. Here’s the full release:

The Austin echo chamber is a funny thing. Six months ago, to hear the Austin chattering classes tell it Juan Garcia was a dead man walking.
[Yes, I am a member in good standing of the Austin chattering classes.]

At that same time, Texas 20/20 even caught some flack for supporting a sophomore candidate that was then perceived to be a “financial burden” and a “losing cause” to our organization. Our standard response at that time was that we don’t select our membership based on probabilities of electoral outcomes. Instead, we support leaders that have demonstrated a commitment to re-building a working process in the Texas Capitol and who put their district’s interests ahead of partisan loyalties.

Juan Garcia matched both of those criteria, and for that reason, we were proud to add him as a member of our group.

And, as luck would have it, yesterday’s conventional wisdom turned out to be blindingly wrong. Today, Juan Garcia is not just winning his race – he’s running away with it.

Juan deserves most of the credit for this. He’s been a disciplined candidate, a tireless fundraiser, and he has the kind of political profile that voters go ga ga over. And the mechanics of his campaign have been flawless. The Garcia field campaign started at the beginning of August. They’ve knocked on 68,973 doors since. If you drive through the district, you’ll probably see one of the 3,563 signs that sit in front of Juan’s supporters’ homes and businesses. And in a race where money was supposed to be the biggest hurdle of all, Garcia has raised $827,474.42 to date.

For safe measure, the Garcia campaign’s torrid fundraising is looking to hold its pace in the final month of the campaign. Next Wednesday night, Texas business and civic icons Charles Butt, Red McCombs, Bartell Zachry, Henry Cisneros, Frank Burney, and Roland Pablos are joining forces to host a fundraiser for the Garcia campaign in San Antonio…. [This is the victory lap.]

And if numbers matter to you, Garcia has been at least ten points up in the two most recent polls of his district.

As much as I’d like to give all of the credit to Team Garcia for the “surprising” state of this race, we’d be remiss not to mention that his opponent has done more than his fair share to guarantee Juan’s victory in 25 days. The list of gaffes, tactical blunders, and outright screw-ups is almost too long to wade into, but if you’d like to get a small sense, this is a good primer. If you’re still in the mood for more, you can link here.

The real bottom line, though, is that the conventional wisdom in Austin, not for the first time, has been 180-degrees opposite the facts on the ground in House District 32. Today, I’m happy to report that I can say with almost perfect confidence that Juan Garcia will win re-election this November 4th.

Texas 20/20 has been proud to help in Juan Garcia’s re-election campaign. In January, we look forward to working with him to make positive change in the Texas House.

Note to Jim: There is plenty of time to make folks like me eat crow after the votes have been counted.

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