Liveblogging the primary
Tue March 2, 2010 7:24 pm

I will post the latest news I have HERE at the top of the article.

CLAYTON DEFEATS MILLER BY 54 VOTES IN SBOE #12

RATLIFF, MCLEROY BATTLE FOR SBOE #9 UPDATED
Ratliff 52,747
McLeroy 51,611

Ratliff leads by 1,136...last 2 Hunt County boxes are in and Ratliff gained 5 votes...2 Walker County boxes still out, Ratliff is running slightly ahead there...15 boxes out in Collin County. It's hard for me to see how McLeroy can pick up more than a thousand votes in 15 boxes. I think Ratliff has got it.

CLAYTON EXPANDS LEAD OVER MILLER FOR SBOE #12
He won Collin County comfortably. The race is not over. There are still 239 precincts in Dallas County whose votes have not been counted on the Secretary of State's web site. Miller won the early vote in Dallas County, but barely.

RIOS YBARRA LOSES REELECTION BID
Five boxes still out but the lead is insurmountable:
Lozano 56.28%
Rios Ybarra 43.71%
Trials 2, TLR 0

I can't help but think that the very public breakup of Rios Ybarra's marriage cost her this race. That and a very clever Web campaign against her for absenteeism -- video of her empty chair in committee.

SECOND BIGGEST UPSET OF THE NIGHT (maybe)
Geraldine "Tincy" Miller, a former chairman of the State Board of Education and one of the Republican moderates on the board, is trailing an unknown DISD administrator named George Clayton. I have followed these races and no one thought Miller was in trouble. The immediate question that comes to mind is whether Clayton is another religious right stealth candidate. It doesn't look good. Here's what Clayton told Unfair Park, the blog for the Dallas Observer:

"Clayton said evolution is and should remain in science classrooms, but he thinks the alternative theories supported by the religious right -- intelligent design and creationism -- can 'find a real nice home' in humanities, philosophy or world history classes.

"It's seems to me you can't be taught the one [evolution] without the other [creationism]," Clayton said. "It's an impossibility to talk about evolution without mentioning creationism."

No, it's not.

Analysis of the George Clayton-Geraldine "Tincy" Miller race:
137 of 417 precincts reporting
Clayton 21,420 - 52.21%
Miller 19,605 - 47.78%

Most of Clayton's lead comes from Rockwall County, where all the boxes are in. The district includes part of Collin county, most of which appears to be city of Plano, and part of Dallas County. In Collin County, 41 of the 51 boxes are outstanding. In Dallas County, 239 of 349 boxes are outstanding. The ultraconservative northern reaches of Collin County lie north of Plano, which would put them out of the district. This suggests that Miller is still alive, but barely.

Analysis of the Betty Brown-Lance Gooden race:
65 of 75 precincts reporting
Gooden leads by 107 votes
All ten remaining precincts are in Kaufman County, a suburban Dallas area that has seen a lot of newcomers. Brown's greatest strength has always been in Henderson County. Tonight:
Analysis of the Betty Brown-Lance Gooden race: 65 of 75 precincts reporting Gooden leads by 107 votes All ten remaining precincts are in Kaufman County, a suburban Dallas area that has seen a lot of newcomers. Brown's greatest strength has always been in Henderson County. Tonight:
Henderson County: Brown 1,370 - Gooden 1,281 with all boxes counted Kaufman County: Gooden 4,089 - Brown 3,893 -- with 10 boxes out Gooden leads by 107 votes and he's carrying the county.
Slight edge to Gooden.

Analysis of Lozano-Rios Ybarra race:
Latest returns:
Lozano 6,643
Rios Ybarra 4,779

Lozano built his lead by winning his home county, Kleberg, by 2,523-1,068, and by winning Brooks County by 2,222-784. But this is a north versus south race, and the votes in the north are in. Willacy, in the south, voted 1,943-1,232 for Ybarra. And only a thousand or so votes have been tabulated in Cameron County. Rios Ybarra can still win this race.

STATISTIC OF THE NIGHT -- Harris County
Perry 38,771
Hutchison 16,393
He beat her more than 2 to 1 in the state's largest county. Terrible showing.

Schwertner is a winner in District 20...he's at 57%

Democratic Primary -- Ron Reynolds is going to beat Olivo. Craddick rescued her last time. Not this time. 58.25% - 41.74%

WORST NEWS OF THE NIGHT -- Supreme Court, place 3: Rick Green is leading. Ugh. Five of the six candidates are bunched between Green at 18.90% and Jeff Brown at 16.88%. Shows you what happens when TLR doesn't have the fix in.

Uh-oh: VICTOR CARRILLO TRAILING ... He's the chairman of the Railroad Commissioner, in case you don't know him, and apparently too many people don't. His problem: He's running against an Anglo. Perhaps Perry could have spared a few of his millions so Carrillo could get on TV. Xavier Hernandez redux.

David Porter 59.55%
Victor Carrillo 40.44%

In the Democratic Primary, former state senator Hector Uribe, who is half of the "get two Hispanics on the ticket" strategy, isn't doing his part. He's losing to an unknown (Bill Burton) in a race that is almost a dead heat. I can't believe an Hispanic can lose a statewide Democratic primary race to someone with a non-Hispanic name.

MERRITT TRAILING AFTER EARLY VOTE; HOPSON HAS HUGE LEAD

The early vote is so large that I think it will set the trend everywhere.

District 2
Dan Flynn wins easily

District 3 (for the right to oppose Mark Homer)
Holland Harper 55.99%
Erwin Cain 44.0%
Looks good for Harper but too early to call...Cain, the hard-right candidate, has the support of the GOP organizations.

District 4
Betty Brown 49.69
Lance Gooden 50.50

District 5
David Simpson 54.02%
Tommy Merritt 45.97% Leo Berman strikes

District 11
Chuck Hopson 60.61% Leo Berman strikes out
Allan Cain 18.48%
Michael Banks 20.90%

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