This report comes from Chase Untermeyer, whom Capitol veterans will remember as a former state representative from Houston and aide to vice-president George H. W. Bush, and later an assistant secretary of the Navy and ambassador to Qatar. He is also the author of “The House is not a Home,” his account of his first legislative session, which appeared in Texas Monthly and is one of the best articles about the Legislature we have ever run.
* Early voting for the runoff is 12% higher than for the general on 3 Nov.
* Among early voters, 15% did not vote in the general.
* The early voters split approximately 1/3 black and 2/3 Republicans over 65. Both have been target groups of Locke’s campaign.
* In order to win, Locke needs as big a turnout as possible; Annise Parker presumably wants a smaller one, since her core voters are extremely dedicated.
* Locke can win if he gets 85% of the black vote (up from only 65% on 3 Nov), about 40% of the west side (chiefly GOP) Anglo vote, and half the Hispanic vote.
My prediction is that he will do this and win a narrow (i.e., <52%) victory.