[I have recovered some material I lost from the original post]
It’s Jim Landtroop.
1. He’s a freshman.
2. He supported Paxton for speaker.
3. He cast one of the fifteen votes against Straus for speaker
4. He represents a part of the state that is hemorrhaging population.
5. He has nowhere to go to pick up extra people.
6. He’s a hard-right conservative
7. He has already been marginalized by his committee assignments (Agriculture & Livestock, Defense & Veterans’ Affairs), although Ag is important in his district.
Landtroop has one of the most oddly shaped districts. It is essentially a cross, seven counties from north to south, five from east to west, with appendages on the east side. He is landlocked by savvy veteran members who play important roles in the House: Chisum on the north; Hardcastle, Darby, and Keffer on the east; Hilderbran on the south; and Craddick and Charles Perry on the west. Perry is a Landtroop clone: tea-party type, hard-right conservative, poor committee assignments, supported Paxton for speaker, voted against Straus. You could flip a coin and let the winner have the seat without affecting the House at all. My bet is that Lubbock will get the seat in the end.