This is the assessment of author Nathan L. Gonzales, who also serves as deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a Washington-based newsletter. In a survey piece about Latino political prospects nationwide, Gonzales writes:
In Texas, Republican Ted Cruz is beloved by national conservative groups such as the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks. But the former state solicitor general is locked in a very competitive Republican primary.
Not only is Cruz the underdog to wealthy Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, but Cruz is in danger of finishing third in the initial primary, behind the former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert, and missing the run-off altogether. Cruz has raised over $3 million, but it’s nowhere near enough to raise his profile with campaign ads in such a large state with multiple expensive media markets.
This sounds right to me. Roll Call’s report of third-quarter fundraising efforts (rounded off) shows Cruz with $2,422,000 cash on hand. Leppert has $4,171,00, roughly the same as Dewhurst. Leppert has a geographical base; Cruz doesn’t. If there is a runoff, Cruz is going to have a hard time making it.