New Public Policy Polling survey: 40/30/20 model
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Perry 40% (39%) Hutchison 31% (28%) Medina 20% (24%) (numbers in parentheses = PPP 2/9 poll) N = 400 likely Republican primary voters MOE = +/- 4.9% These numbers seem intuitively correct. They suggest that Perry and Hutchison have beaten each other up enough that both are more or less stuck. However, Hutchison’s three-point gain has brought her within single digits of Perry. Medina’s four-point slippage, due entirely to self-sabotage, seems to have gone +3 to Hutchison, +1 to Perry. This is about what you would expect: 3 to 1 against the incumbent. Perry cannot be happy about these numbers. He hasn’t put her away yet. Is it possible that there are enough normal people in Texas — people who don’t think that the Tenth Amendment, nullification, and secession are the most important issues facing Texas — to make a race out of this?