Perry tells supporters, in Baselice poll, he's +13
Wed December 30, 2009 6:15 pm

The Quorum Report’s Daily Buzz says that the Perry campaign sent out a Mike Baselice poll to supporters via e-mail, with no supporting information, that showed:

Perry 49%
Hutchison 36%
Medina 5%

That sounds reasonable to me. The November Texas Tribune/UT poll had Perry 42%, Hutchison 30%, Media 7%. This is hardly an apples to apples comparison, but, if both polls are accurate, the two leading candidates have picked up support since November.

I offer a few words of caution to those who think the race is over.

–Primary races are hard to poll accurately unless the polling operation goes to the expense to identify actual primary voters. Statements that a poll respondent intends to vote in a primary aren’t worth a lot.

–While Perry has had everything going his way up to now, almost everything except one good TV spot for each side has taken place out of sight of most voters, on web sites and in back-and-forth press releases. Only the media and interested parties have followed it. The real campaign has not started. It will start when both candidates go up on TV with their main messages. That will probably be sometime next week. One good spot can win a primary race. Rick Perry knows this. That’s all it took for him, a political unknown at the time, to beat incumbent Democratic Jim Hightower for agriculture commissioner in 1990.

–The unknown factor in this race is Perry fatigue. How many voters who today don’t care much about the race will wake up on March 2 and decide that they don’t want Perry to have another term?

I am indebted to the Quorum Report for their item about this poll.

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