Public Policy Polling: Dewhurst 38, Cruz 26
Wed April 25, 2012 5:56 pm

My general rule about polls is to accept that polling organizations, including PPP, are good at what they do and they seldom get it wrong. That said, I think they got it wrong. I don't think this is a twelve-point race. I haven't seen anything, in the debates or anywhere else, to suggest that Cruz is overtaking Dewhurst. Cruz will likely get a boost from Washington groups that are supporting him, but in general, this is a race that will be decided by name identification and money, and I don't see how Cruz can match Dewhurst in two categories. Dewhurst has a solid conservative record, while Cruz doesn't have a lot of accomplishments to brag about. I'm going to stick with my belief that Dewhurst will win this race, but I have to concede that PPP's numbers surprise me:

Dewhurst 38%

Cruz 26%

Leppert 8%

James 7%

If these numbers hold, the race is headed for a runoff on July 31, when any Texan with good sense will be out of the state, and only hard-core base voters will turn out. That's the winning scenario for Cruz.

* * * *

More from PPP:

It is the furthest right segment of the Republican electorate where Cruz is gaining momentum. Among Tea Party voters, he and Dewhurst are tied at 35%. Dewhurst is winning easily, 41-20, with non-Tea Party voters. There is also a bit of a generational divide, with Dewhurst leading by 26 points among seniors but holding only a 6-8 point lead among younger voters.

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