This represents a net six point gain for Perry over the May poll (Perry +4, Hutchison -2). The spread itself is bad enough for the Hutchison camp, but even worse is that Perry has passed her in favorability ratings. This would have been seen as inconceivable at the time Hutchison announced her exploratory committee last December.
Perry 76% favorable, 23% unfavorable
Hutchison 72% favorable, 25% unfavorable
Perry 74% approve, 25% disapprove
Hutchison (no results given)
Men: Perry +17 points
Women: virtual tie
Events are trending strongly in Perry’s favor:
Tea parties: 82% of likely primary voters view favorably
Economic stimulus: 7% say that it has helped, 61% say it has hurt
Health care plan: 12% support, 83% oppose
What is the case for a Hutchison victory at this point? There’s only one argument that I can think of, and that is she can expand the primary turnout. That seems a lot less likely today than it did when she first got into the race. It’s hard to beat an incumbent with 76% favorability and 74% job approval. I have been very critical of the Hutchison non-campaign, but the fact is that the reason for these numbers isn’t what Hutchison hasn’t done. It’s what Perry has done.