The race hasn’t budged since the last poll (July 14, Perry 50, White 41). What is significant is that White has spent buckets of money since the last poll and he hasn’t moved any numbers. Probably most Texans know how they are going to vote in this race.
Here is the report on the pollster’s Web site:
Neither major party candidate appears to be gaining any ground in Texas ’ gubernatorial race, with Republican incumbent Rick Perry still holding a small lead.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Perry earning 49% support, while Democrat Bill White, a former mayor of Houston, receives 41% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
The race remains Solid GOP in the Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard. [bold face added]
Last month, Perry held a nearly identical 50% to 41% advantage over White. In match-ups since February, Perry’s support has ranged from 47% to 51%. White has earned 38% to 44% of the vote in that same period.
White faces a tough race in a state that trends conservative Republican, especially given the national electoral mood.
Seventy-six percent (76%) of Texas voters consider Perry a conservative. Forty-two percent (42%) view White as a liberal, while another 29% describe him as a moderate.
Despite the perceived differences in ideology, 51% of voters in the state describe Perry’s political views as mainstream, and 52% say the same of White’s views. Thirty-three percent (33%) brand Perry’s views as extreme, and 29% think White’s are extreme.
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Texas was conducted on August 22, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Perry is favored by 72% of Republicans, while 84% of Democrats support White. Among voters not affiliated with either political party, the Republican leads by a 59% to 33% margin.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters in the state approve of the job Perry is doing as governor. Forty-five percent (45%) disapprove. These numbers, too, have held steady for months.
Twenty percent (20%) of voters in Texas have a Very Favorable opinion of Perry, while 20% view him Very Unfavorably.
White is regarded Very Favorably by 19% and Very Unfavorably by 18%.
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I see nothing in here that is bad for Perry or good for White. Nothing has changed except the White campaign’s bank balance–for the worse. The political climate weighs heavily in Perry’s favor and is reflected in Perry’s high approval rating. About the only thing White can hold onto is that this is August and most people do not pay attention to politics in August.
The most significant number is Perry’s 59-33 margin among unaffiliated voters. If you’re a Democratic candidate and independent voters are breaking almost 2 to 1 against you, you’re unelectable.
White’s television has been primarily positive to this point. At some point he is going to have to attack Perry. But most of the anti-Perry issues were vetted in the primary by Hutchison, and she did nothing but lose ground throughout the campaign. Perry is such a familiar figure by now that everybody knows how they feel about him. This is why, as I have written before, nothing sticks to him. When I was on MSNBC earlier in the month, Chuck Todd asked me, “Does White have a snowball’s chance?” My response was, “That’s about right. He has a snowball’s chance.”
- 1 week