The Senate race from the Cruz perspective
Wed November 2, 2011 3:12 pm

Since I have been a Cruz skeptic throughout this race, I am going to post the Cruz spin, per John Drogin, and let it stand without a rebuttal.

This is the release that Drogin sent out today:

November 2, 2011

By John Drogin

Today, we have more poll results, and they’re very, very good.

The latest Texas Tribune/UT poll shows Dewhurst at 22% and Ted Cruz at 10%.

Four observations:

1. Despite near universal name ID, only 22 percent of Texans support David Dewhurst. That would be good for a novice candidate, but it’s not encouraging for someone who has appeared on the ballot for a decade and received nearly 62 percent of the vote in his last campaign. The bottom line: With a little more than four months before the Republican Primary, a full 78% of Texas Republicans prefer someone other than David Dewhurst for U.S. Senator.

2. The last five statewide polls were as follows:
Public Policy Polling 1/19
Dewhurst 23%
Cruz 3%

UT/Texas Tribune 5/24
Dewhurst 25%
Cruz 2%

Dewhurst enters the race:

Public Policy Polling 7/5
Dewhurst 40%
Cruz 11%

Public Policy Polling 9/22
Dewhurst 41%
Cruz 12%

UT/Texas Tribune 11/2
Dewhurst 22%
Cruz 10%

[Please note that the poll results from 11/2 have been corrected.]

[Drogin writes]:Over time, two trends are clear: Cruz’s support has more than doubled (from 2-3% to 10-12%) and Dewhurst’s has dropped by half (from 40-41% to 22%).

Dewhurst’s sinking poll numbers may explain his campaign’s major shakeup a few weeks ago — when he dismissed his campaign manager and brought in a whole new team.

3. These poll results dovetail with the Azimuth poll released two weeks ago. That poll showed Cruz and Dewhurst statistically tied (Cruz 32, Dewhurst 31) among the most active primary voters (emphasis Drogin's). That, too, is very encouraging; it shows that when voters hear Ted’s message, it resonates, and the most informed voters are trending heavily Cruz.

4. On a broader statewide level, which is what the Texas Tribune/UT poll measured, Dewhurst still has a significant name ID advantage. And he’ll spend millions of dollars of his own personal wealth running TV ads trying to hide from his record and convince voters he’s conservative. But, the more voters learn about Dewhurst’s actual record, the more his support collapses--that support is moving to Cruz.

Six months ago, Dewhurst had a massive lead. This is now a 12-point race.

Half of the Republican voters are still undecided, but Cruz has the best ground game and a strong conservative record that will appeal to undecided Republicans. And, having raised over $2.8 million — more than any other candidate in the race, including Dewhurst — Cruz will have the funding to get his message out.

As UT pollster Daron Shaw noted:

“Those who thought Cruz was using the Senate race as a proving ground, they may want to think again — I think it’s going to be a horse race.”

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