SurveyUSA: Perry, Bell, and Two Death Knells
Tue October 24, 2006 7:46 pm

The latest SurveyUSA poll in the governor's race shows Bell pulling away from Strayhorn to make the governor's race a two-person contest. This is the matchup Rick Perry wanted. What's that old saying? Something about, Be careful what you wish for.

Here are the results (466 likely voters, margin of error +/- 4.6%)

Perry 36%
Bell 26%
Strayhorn 19%
Friedman 16%
Werner 1%
Undecided 2%

I have some reservations about this poll. This is a race in which all of the candidates are flawed, and SurveyUSA is saying that only 2% of the voters are undecided. I don't believe it. Hey, I'm one of the undecideds.

Perry's support continues to hover in the mid-thirties, up a tick or two in the more recent polls. This would be consistent with his getting a bounce out of the debate and perhaps capturing some Republicans who had strayed to the independents with his "Sharks" ad. Bell's bounce, sustained by his being able to get on television, was even greater. Strayhorn and Friedman totally botched the debate and have been dead in the water ever since.

FYI, here are the most recent polls in the governor's race, from most to least recent, all within the last two-and-a-half weeks.

Zogby/Wall Street Journal/Battleground States had almost identical results as SurveyUSA at the top of the ballot:

Perry 37.2%
Bell 26.2%
Friedman 13.2%
Strayhorn 13%
Werner (L) 3.9
Undecided 6.5%

And Texans for Insurance Reform (Opinion Analysts) was very similar to the Rasmussen poll conducted just before the October 6 debate.

Perry 34%
Strayhorn 19%
Bell 19%
Friedman 9%
Undecided 19%

The major difference between TIR and Rasmussen was that the former had Kinky in single digits and the undecided vote near 20%, while Rasmussen had just the oppose:

Perry 34%
Strayhorn 21%
Bell 19%
Friedman 18%
Undecided 8%

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