The case against Public Policy Polling
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A Perry supporter points out that in the last PPP poll before the March 2 Republican primary, PPP had the race at Perry 40%, Hutchison 31%, Medina 20%, and said the race was headed for a runoff. Perry, of course, won without a runoff. If you put this together with their early polling in the race, which showed Hutchison with a 25-point lead on Perry, you can make a case that the firm does not have a good track record in Texas. Even if PPP was off base in its polling of Hispanics in Texas, the larger point still stands. Demographics is destiny. The future is no mystery. If the Arizona immigration debate does not affect this election in Texas at all, nothing changes. Sooner or later the Republican party must welcome Hispanics into the tent. The alternative is permanent minority status. My position on the worthiness of polls has been that I will publish the results of all relevant polls. As I have said before, I am not the local Chevy dealer; I don’t provide warranties. Readers are free to draw their own conclusions about the accuracy of surveys. If I think the poll has obvious weaknesses (as with the UT Poll in which 90% of respondents said they followed politics very closely), I’ll post my observations.