Jim Henson, co-director of the poll, writes, “David Dewhurst is roughly splitting the extremely conservative primary voters with Ted Cruz. That’s not a sign of failure or defeat, but it is a yellow flag.”
Maybe I’m reading this wrong, but it seems to me that if Dewhurst is “roughly splitting” the extremely conservative vote with Cruz, that’s good for Dewhurst, not problematical. It means Dewhurst gets half of the extremely conservative voters and, presumably, all of the moderates. In this scenario, he wins.
An interesting question is whether the delay of the primary caused by redistricting helps Dewhurst or Cruz more. It might be Cruz. He needs the extra time to increase his name ID. A longer race helps Dewhurst too, because Cruz’s campaign doesn’t have the deep pockets that Dewhurst’s does. Dewhurst wins a war of attrition.
I still have a hard time believing that this is really a 38-27 race.