UT/Tribune Poll: Perry +9
Mon May 24, 2010 12:53 am

At least it's better than the Rasmussen poll. The numbers:

Perry 44%
White 35%
Undecided 15%
Someone else 7%

If you were trying to put a good face on the results for White, you would say (1) Perry is under 50%; (2) 22%, more than 1 voter in 5, are unsatisfied with their choices; (3) at least it's better than the Rasmussen poll.

More numbers:
Anglo voters: Perry 55%, White 25%
African-American voters: White 69%, Perry 5%
Hispanic voters: White 43%, Perry32%
Male voters: Perry 48%, White 34%
Female voters: Perry 40%, White 35%

Obama approval rating:
Approve 35%
Disapprove 58%

This observation by UT government professor and pollster Daron Shaw pretty much sums up the state of the race: "Anecdotally, off the top of your head, if a Democrat runs against a Republican in the state of Texas, what’s the spread? Twelve points. This looks pretty much like a statewide election in Texas looks. It doesn't look like some huge Republican tide, but it doesn't look like a Democratic renaissance, either."

Twelve points! That is a huge spread. Mike Baselice has generally put the Republican advantage at 9, which is what the poll reflects. The Democrats are in for some dark days.

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