Waiting for Rasmussen: UPDATE
Thu August 19, 2010 12:44 pm

To readers:

I think gremlins must have invaded the Rasmussen Web site yesterday. The pie charts that I referred to yesterday are gone today. Where the charts were yesterday, there is white space today. The Perry job approval numbers are still there. The media coverage pie chart is gone too. (It showed Perry 77% of coverage, White 22%). That sounds right, but a lot of Perry's coverage has been not so good. In any case, I don't trust any of the numbers I reported yesterday, especially White's negatives. He's still largely unknown. No way his negatives are in the 40s today, though they may end up there.--pb

* * * *

Expectations were high that a new Rasmussen poll was coming out today on the Texas governor's race. (The previous poll, on July 15, had Perry leading White by 50% to 41%.) Apparently not. Here is what is available on the Rasmussen Web site. These numbers bear yesterday's date, 8/18:

Positive/Negative view:
Perry 45.4% positive, 54.6% negative
White 44.7% positive, 55.3% negative

White's negatives have shot up during the campaign. This may indicate that the money he spent on television (along with the independent expenditures on his behalf) may have worked against him.

Perry job approval: 52% approve, 47% disapprove. This indicates that the electorate is sharply polarized. No surprise. Perry is an extremely partisan and divisive candidate.

Rasmussen puts great emphasis on "strong" approval and disapproval. The graph for Obama's strong approval/disapproval is not easy to read, but the gap is negative 24. Approximately 30% strongly approve of Obama's job performance and 54% strongly disapprove.

When the next Rasmussen poll appears, a crucial point will be whether White, who has run a lot of television with no answer from Perry, has closed the gap at all, and whether it matters at this stage of the race. I think it does matter. White needs to start showing some movement if he is going to continue having success in fundraising.

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