Wave vs. Wall
Tue October 24, 2006 8:41 am

I came across this quote from a Democratic pollster on the Web site politicalwire.com, crediting another Web site, pollster.com. It neatly summarizes the race for the House of Representatives and suggests that any celebrating by the Democrats about taking over the House is premature:

“There’s a big anti-Republican wave out there. But that wave will crash up against a very stable political structure, so we won’t be sure of the exact scope of Democratic gains until election night. We really don’t yet know which is ultimately more important – the size of the wave or the stability of the structure.”– Democratic pollster Mark Mellman

The wave, of course, is rising number of House districts in which Republicans are in trouble. The stable political structure is the Republicans’ built-in advantage in fundraising, get-out-the-vote techniques, and redistricting (think Tom DeLay in Texas), which have combined to give Republican members of congress safe seats–until now. In effect, the battle for the House comes down to the irresistible force versus the immovable object.

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