Perry creeps ever closer to the magic 50% that would enable him to win without a runoff—which the Perry camp expects him to do. Hutchison’s position appears to be hopeless, not that this is anything new, but it does raise the question of whether, if Perry comes in with just
Perry gained 1 point since the previous poll. Hutchison lost 4 points. Medina gained 4 points. Hutchison now is lower in the polls (29) than Perry was (30) when she first announced that she would run for governor. Key stat: If voters maintain their current attitudes, Hutchison needs 50% of
The call had to do with my post yesterday ("Was the Hutchison poll phony?") in which I expressed my concern about whether their poll, which the campaign has said showed them two points down, was on the level. Obviously, the campaign was none too happy about what I wrote, and
The poll surveyed 798 likely Republican primary voters. These results tracked a poll I wrote about last night: the leaders lost ground, Medina gained ground. The main difference is that the “undecideds” did not gain as much ground as they did in the unnamed poll that I reported on. The
"Things are seldom what they seem. Skim milk masquerades as cream." --Gilbert and Sullivan A reputable GOP consultant who is not engaged with either gubernatorial campaign has concluded after looking at the crosstabs of the Rasmussen poll that the poll's conclusion that Hutchison is leading by Perry by 2 points
Hutchison 40%, Perry 38%. This is a stunning development. Hutchison was down 46-36 in July and had a poor rollout of her campaign in August. What accounts for the turnaround? 1. Overconfidence and misjudgments in the Perry camp. I have had a number of conversations with Perry supporters,
This represents a net six point gain for Perry over the May poll (Perry +4, Hutchison -2). The spread itself is bad enough for the Hutchison camp, but even worse is that Perry has passed her in favorability ratings. This would have been seen as inconceivable at the time Hutchison
