Mon June 9, 2014 12:49 pm By Paul Burka

There are three Texan Republicans who may run for president in 2016--Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul (the senator from Kentucky, who grew up in Texas and appeared at the state Republican convention this weekend). I don't think any of them could make it across the finish line. But there is a real possibility that one of them could be the vice-presidential candidate. And the envelope, please...

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Mon June 9, 2014 10:14 am By Paul Burka

The Republican party platform is divorced from reality. Texas is a huge state with a huge economy, and Republicans are talking about converting gay citizens to being straight--one of the most backward ideas I can imagine--and taking a hard line on immigration. Both issues will set the party back and embolden their opponents.

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Thu June 5, 2014 12:45 am By Paul Burka

Does anyone other than me regard it as strange that Greg Abbott, the Republican candidate for governor, has a role at the Republican state convention that could fairly be described as minimal?

Abbott is scheduled to make three appearances at the convention:
(1) He will address the convention Friday at 2 p.m.
(2) He and his wife will host a meet and greet from 3-4:30 p.m.
(3) He will attend a D-Day "Salute to Veterans" with his brother, Bud.

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Wed June 4, 2014 2:49 pm By Erica Grieder

Yesterday the Texas Public Policy Foundation released a report on “The Real Texas Budget.” The purpose of the report, as expressed in the introduction, is to help Texans understand what our state government actually spends—a task that is more difficult than it should be because of “legislative tactics, insufficient reporting, and the complexity of the system.” The report is the result of “weeks of work,” according to TPPF’s Chuck Devore, and covers state spending trends since 2004. The first of its key findings, though, concerns state spending, a topic that has been much in the news lately: “Total Texas state government spending for 2014-15 is estimated to be $201.9 billion, a 9 percent increase over the previous biennium.”

The figure is right in line with what Texas’s most credible budget experts estimated at the end of last year. As the regular legislative session wound up, Politifact Texas asked several analysts, most of whom estimated that state spending for the 2014-15 biennium would be 8 to 9 percent greater than in the 2012-13 biennium. The Legislative Budget Board, for example, estimated that the state’s general spending in 2014-2015 would increase 8.3% from 2012-13 (PDF). Staff for Tommy Williams, the Republican from The Woodlands who chaired the Senate Finance Committee, pointed to the LBB’s estimate as a good heuristic, with the note that the LBB’s figure had not been updated to reflect a supplemental spending measure that had been passed just in the nick of time.  

The growth in state spending—let’s go ahead and call it 9 percent—was significant, but not out of line given the state’s population growth, and it didn’t break the state’s constitutional spending cap, which had been set at 10.71 percent. And the budget itself wasn’t controversial in the Legislature, which is, of course, controlled by Republicans; it passed both the House and the Senate with whopping majorities, and was signed by Rick Perry to general acclaim.

Lurking on the fringes, however, were a group of conservatives clamoring that the budget actually represented a 26 percent increase in spending for 2014-15 compared to 2012-13. That figure was a blatant misrepresentation, but one that gained a fair amount of traction, especially after the Wall Street Journal published an editorial, in June, harrumphing that the 26 percent surge in state spending amounted to a California-style spending spree that would put Texas on the road to serfdom. Opposition to the budget became a litmus test among conservatives, a factor that would be heavily weighed in the report cards some of them are elected to represent.

Where did the 26 percent figure come from? Well, it came from the Texas Public Policy Foundation. The same Texas Public Policy Foundation that just released a report estimating that state spending will increase 9 percent in the next biennium.

In other words, TPPF is now disavowing its own earlier analysis. In a way, I think we should let them; if people don’t have a chance to discreetly change their tune, there’s a greater risk that they’ll double down instead of trying to recalibrate. On the other hand, the 26 percent calculation was wrong, and damagingly so—damaging to the Republican party, to the cause of fiscal conservatism, and possibly to the state—so I think we need to take a moment to look at how they arrived at that figure, and what happened as a result.

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Wed June 4, 2014 11:21 am By Paul Burka

A fight over immigration looms at the Republican state convention, which begins tomorrow in Fort Worth.

This alert went out to Republicans attending the convention, from leaders opposed to immigration reform:

"If you haven't been paying attention, [Speaker] John Boehner and his "leadership" team (that includes Pete Sessions) have been trying for some time to pass a "comprehensive immigration reform" bill. Unfortunately for them--and fortunately for the rule of law--polling shows that American voters, and especially Republican voters, are decidedly against any immigration reform proposal that includes amnesty for illegals."

The immigration/amnesty issue was hotly debated at the 2012 state GOP convention. Land commissioner Jerry Patterson proposed to add a guest worker's program for Texas as a plank in the Republican party platform.

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