The Chattering Class
We’ve received many reader comments in the final days of the election. Some of you agree with us, some of you disagree with us, and almost all of you like to stir things up. We’re just happy that you’re paying attention, even if you’re not using your real names. Here are some of your last-minute predictions.
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The results of our Election Day Office Pool, not accounting for voter fraud.
Electoral Votes: Obama 363-175
Popular Vote: Obama 52, McCain 46
Senate: 57 D, 41 R, 2 I
House: 261 D, 174 R
Biggest surprise: McCain wins Texas by less than 10 pts
Lamest excuse: We would have done better with more rain
—West Texas Hillbilly
EV: Obama 286, McCain 252 (Obama loses OH, FL, IN, wins VA, NM, IA, CO)
PV: Obama gets between 50 and 51.5 in the popular vote.
House: 251 D
Senate: 58 D (Cornyn beats Noriega by 6 to 8%, though Franken does edge out Coleman.)
Texas House: +3 D
Texas Senate: +2 D (Davis is one, Bell is two, probably in a runoff)
Biggest Surprise, Presidential: McCain wins NC by way more than you expected.
Biggest Surprise, Texas: Bell wins without a runoff.
Next Speaker: Not Craddick.
McCain wins FL, PA, OH, VA
Psychiatrists on-call and working overtime.
Obama 371 (Yes, I′m smoking dope)
McCain 167 (ouch)
Popular Vote Obama 52, McCain 46, Other 2
US Senate 57-41-2
US House 265-170
Texas House +5 D
Texas Senate =2 D
Next Speaker, Not Craddick
Biggest surprise presidential: McCain loses Arizona
Biggest Surprise Texas: McCain wins by 6 points or less.
—Anonymous Liberal Lout
Electoral vote: 338 Obama
Popular vote: 52/47 Obama/McCain
U.S. Senate: 56-42-2 after the election, but Snowe and Collins switch to give the Ds 60.
U.S. House: 270 D/165 R
Texas House: D 76/ R 74
Texas Senate: R 19/D 12
Biggest Surprise, Presidential: Obama wins VA and CO by double digits
Biggest Surprise, Texas: Democrats Take House
The Next Speaker of the Texas House will be: Jim Dunnam
Electoral vote: I′ll take the over on Obama 340.
Popular vote: Obama 53, McCain 44, Other 3
U.S. Senate: 57-42 (Lieberman invited by Dems to jump in the Potomac)
U.S. House: I′ll take the over on 270 Ds
Texas House: +4 Democratic
Texas Senate: +2 Democratic
Biggest Surprise, Presidential: Obama wins PA, FL, and OH comfortably
Biggest Surprise, Texas: Tarrant Co. turns purple
The Next Speaker of the Texas House will be: Tom Craddick
—The Best Ever Death Metal Band in Denton
Obama will win PA, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Florida, ND, and NM. He wil lose in NC, IN, MT, MO, and GA. That pattern should add up to 341. His margin in the popular vote will be 4-6%.
US Senate: 59 Democrat.
I suspect that Craddick will be the next speaker because his opponents will be unable to unify behind a single alternative.
Obama 339, including one EV from Omaha.
Popular vote: Obama 54, McCain 45, third parties 1
US Senate: 58 Democrats and independents to 42 Republican, although I′m not certain with whom Lieberman will caucus this January
US House: No filibuster or cloture issues, so anything over current Democratic total is gravy for Democrats
Texas House: pickup of five for Democrats
Texas Senate: no change
Biggest surprise, presidential: one or more McCain electors votes for someone other than McCain
Biggest Surprise, Texas: a Democrat wins a statewide race
Next Speaker: ABC
Electoral Vote: Obama 353
Popular Vote: Obama 52, McCain 45, Other 3
U.S. Senate: 56-42-2
U.S. House: +20 Democrats, but -1 net in Texas
Texas Senate: +1 Democrats
Texas House: net 0, R′s win Shelton, Kleinschmidt, D′s win Turner, Maldonado
Next Speaker: Tom Craddick
Biggest Surprise, Texas: House Democrats fail to meet unrealistic expectations, similar to House Republicans′ failures in 1998 and 2000
Biggest Surprise, Presidential: Considering the last two elections, the surprise might be that we know who the President will be by 9pm.
Electoral vote: 366-172
Popular vote: 52-45.5
U.S. Senate: 58 Ds
U.S. House: 263 Ds
Texas House: 75-75
Texas Senate: 18 GOP – 13 D
Biggest Surprise, Presidential: Beau Biden will return to run for his father′s seat; Obama will make peace with Leberman and appoint Collins or Snowe to cabinet to gain another D in senate.
Biggest Surprise, Texas: A disproportionate number of school district roll backs will fail, dramatically accelerating school finance changes.
The Next Speaker of the Texas House will be: Patrick Rose
Electoral votes (Obama 338; McCain 200) and popular vote (52%/46%). That’s my pick only because I’m being conservative. I think (hope) it may be more of a blowout.
U.S. Senate: 58
Texas House: Dems +4
Texas Senate: Dems +2
—Don’t Mess w/ Pink
In addition to the coming restructuring of the Rs and the marginalization of the “base” as the mods leave permanently or come back and relegate the fringe to the corner, the Ds have their own reconfig to consider. Analogous to the DeLay redistricting in TX (more R dists, more diluted), some new Ds will be more centrist, continuing the trend from ‘06.
[Sarah] Palin is an elected governor with an 80% approval rating. Should I assume that you could not vote for Kerry in 2004 because of his choice of John Edwards? I’m betting that John Kerry was your guy.
Joe the Plumber is emblematic of everything that the Democrats fear. He represents the working class man who aspires to build a good life and to own his own business. He knows how the Dems see him—as a target from whom they will confiscate money to fund their vision of expanded government that will make the Great Society look like a blip on the radar screen.
Many folks will be disappointed if they believe that Obama is a moderate. As Bill Clinton stated, “this is the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen.
I think the idea of the detestable and malevolent Al Franken as Senator from Minnesota is almost more repellent than the idea of the Great and Mighty Obama as Commander in Chief.
Both men promise that change is their overall message, and rightfully so. Everyone agrees that some of the American policies in the last decade have considerably injured the world. Either way the vote goes, the world as we know it will be changed in a very fundamental and positive way. The issues have been debated, the ideologies have been categorized, and now the time has come to correct the errors of the recent past. Of course, things could easily get quite worse, but hopefully whichever of these fellas gets elected will do the right thing for the people he represents.
Today when I cast my vote, it will be because I believe I’ve made the right choice and, yes, because I have hope. I hope my children will be able to live the lives they dream of. I hope everyone’s children will be able to get the education they want and deserve, I hope we can get the healthcare we need, I hope we can retire and still be able to feed our family when the time comes, I hope we’ll care about our environment, so we can watch our grandchildren grow, I hope people can love who they want, I hope everyone has a choice and I hope we’ll be proud of our country without having to wear flag pins to show where we come from.
People have registered to vote in record numbers, and yet, something just doesn’t feel right. I think we should stop congratulating ourselves for just voting. To vote is a privilege which people have died for, and I think there’s a whole lot more to be done for the country than to simply help win an election every 4 years.
Major shocker: TM blogger comes out for Obama.