OSCAR GROUCH
Everyone gets to make their predictions; I get to make mine. Most people say The English Patient will sweep. I say, English, Shminglish--this is the Year of the Split.

BEST PICTURE
Should win: Secrets and Lies
Director Mike Leigh's best movie to date was the best movie of 1996. If it had never been made, I'd pick Fargo--or Lone Star, which wasn't even nominated for Best Picture. But I can't quite remember just plain liking a film as much as Secrets and Lies.
Will win: Jerry Maguire
At a time when everyone's talking about the independents, big studios are desperate to save face--and so are Academy voters, since most of them are big studio types themselves. Even so, the general consensus is that The English Patient will get the nod, since it's as close to a big studio film as exists in the current indie crop. What people are forgetting, however, is that the big studios turned the script down before Miramax gobbled it up; it'd be embarrassing if it won. That's why the Oscar will go to Jerry Maguire--brought to you by the good folks at Sony--even though it isn't worthy.

BEST ACTRESS
Should win: Frances McDormand
The best performance of the year, hands down. But the Academy thinks the Coens are too weird to reward Fargo in such a public way. Does she deserve to win? You betcha. Will she? Not a chance.
Will win: Brenda Blethyn
As Archie Bunker might say, Hollywood loves furners. That's not the only reason English Blethyn and English Kristen Scott Thomas are the prinicipal contenders in this category, but it's a big one. It's also a process-of-elimination issue: Emily Watson is a nobody, and nobody saw Breaking the Waves; and although Diane Keaton is a somebody, nobody saw Marvin's Room (which couldn't have been a very good movie if Meryl Streep wasn't nominated). Scott Thomas was quite believable as someone you'd screw up your life for and even walk the desert for--glam looks, great clothes out of a J. Peterman catalog, and that accent!--but Blethyn will nose her out for one simple reason: Secrets and Lies will not win any other award, and so it gets this one. Besides, there is an Academy precedent for rewarding dumpy, overweight female Brits in arthouse flicks. Remember Brenda Fricker?

BEST ACTOR
Should win: Ralph Fiennes
I say this with a heavy heart, for this is my least favorite group of nominees. They're all fine (fienne?), but I have this kissing-my-sister feeling when I consider them as a group. Fiennes was very good in The English Patient--handsome, dashing, great clothes out of a J. Peterman catalog--but he leaves me a little cold. Didn't see Shine, but on principle I don't vote for actors who play mentally/physically challenged artistes--I'm just not a heartstrings guy--so no Geoffrey Rush. Ditto Billy Bob Hypowitz. And I just didn't like Larry Flynt, or Woody Harrelson in it--even though I laughed every time he said, with marbles in mouth, "Althea."
Will win: Geoffrey Rush
What is the Academy if not a bunch of heartstrings guys? Which is why, incidentally, you shouldn't count out a late surge of support for Billy Bob, who'd better thank his publicist.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should win: Cuba Gooding
I loved Bill Macy in Fargo, just as I love him every week on E.R. But unless he gets Steve Buscemi to kill Kerry Weaver, I'll have to go with Cuba, who stole Jerry Maguire out from under Tom Cruise. He was absolutely delightful. Armin Mueller Stahl? Feh. Jimmy Woods? Liked him better running the Quickie Mart on The Simpsons. Ed Norton? Liked him better on The Honeymooners.
Will win: Cuba Gooding
Show him the Oscar.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should win: Marianne Jean-Baptiste
My second favorite performance of the year; she was great in Secrets and Lies, and who the hell is she? Also, I'd love to see her win because it will be an in-your-face to the white establishment in Hollywood: two black Academy Award-winners in one year.
Will win: Lauren Bacall
Because she's an extremely old broad--an un-p.c. word she'd embrace, by the way--who's been acting in movies forever without being recognized. Every year there's a sort of lifetime achievement award deal, wherein a veteran (read: old broad) gets a nomination more for her body of work than a particular film. This is that. She'll win not because the Streisand movie was good, which it wasn't, but because To Have and Have Not was good, etc.

BEST DIRECTOR
Should win: Mike Leigh
Have I mentioned that I liked Secrets and Lies?
Will win: Anthony Minghella
Because The English Patient--a not very readable book, according to my father-in-law--came out fine in the end, and he's the reason.

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