More than one million people voted in May’s primary election, and that number is supposed to plummet for the July 31 runoff, which is headlined by the Republican contest between Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst and Tea Party favorite Ted Cruz for the U.S. Senate. But, so far at least, early voting turnout has been higher than expected.
Two days of early voting for Tuesday’s GOP runoff election in urban counties of Texas has yielded more than twice as many votes as it did last spring.
The runoff’s early-vote period, which ends Friday, is just five days — less than half the length of the May 14-May 25 early voting window that preceded the May 29 primary. So to get an early vote equal to that cast in the primary, you have to have participation that’s more than twice as heavy.
But many have predicted a steep drop-off in voter participation in the runoff. So far, that’s not borne out.
Garrett goes on to report that there were 31,622 and 36,255 votes cast this past Monday and Tuesday, compared to 15,228 and 15,301 votes cast on the first two days of May early voting.
As Garrett also noted, “the conventional wisdom is that higher turnout helps Dewhurst because it ‘dilutes the tea’ with voters who tilt more to the Texas conservative business establishment.”
In fact, TEXAS MONTHLY’s Paul Burka has predicted that a turnout of fewer than 825,000 voters means a win for Cruz, while a higher number favors Dewhurst.
In San Antonio, John Gonzalez of the Express-News describes a “steady stream” of voters which Elections Administrator Jacque Callanen called “truly amazing.” His colleague Nolan Hicks further reported that:
Election officials expected about 1500 people to vote on Monday: 4705 people voted in the GOP runoff and another 1787 people voted in the Democratic runoff. Tuesday proved another massive surprise as instead 7607 people cast ballots. Election officials were expecting only about 1900.
As University of Texas professor James Henson noted on Twitter, Bexar County’s enthusiasm is likely due to the “double whammy” of the U.S. Senate race