The Better Deal

Numbers don't lie. Dollar for dollar and stat for stat, the Astros' Jeff Bagwell is worth more than the Rangers' bonus baby, Alex Rodriguez.
Hit Man: Huge offensive production and loyalty too.
Photograph by Robert Seale

In honor of opening day 2001, here's a quiz for Astros and Rangers fans. Can you name the major league ballplayer who last year hit more than 45 home runs, collected more than 100 RBIs, and scored more than 150 times—a feat equaled in the history of baseball only by Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, and Jimmie Foxx? The answer, as any die-hard Astros fan can tell you, is Houston's first baseman Jeff Bagwell. Though the Astros had a rotten season last year, finishing 23 games out of first place, Bagwell treated pitchers like they were in Little League. He pounded 47 homers, drove in 132 runs, and scored 152 times.

What he did not do, however, was sign the richest contract in the history of professional sports last December for an unholy $252 million over ten years. That honor belongs to newly signed Texas Rangers shortstop Alex Rodriguez, the man known as A-Rod. Not that Bagwell, who signed a five-year, $85 million contract extension signed a week after A-Rod's deal was announced, is going to have trouble paying his phone bills. He is among the best-paid players in the game. But over the next five years of the extension, A-Rod will earn $25 million more than Bagwell. Even in the hyperinflated financial world of Major League Baseball, that's not chump change.

But it begs an obvious question: Is A-Rod that much better than Bagwell? The answer, with apologies in advance to Rangers' fans, is no way, partner, not even if Rodriguez could pitch relief. Any way you cut it, in spite of the flood of optimism that has accompanied A-Rod's anointment as the savior of the Rangers, Bagwell is a better deal. He is not just cheaper by a country mile. He is actually, stat for stat, a better player. And I have the numbers that prove it.

The first and most obvious difference between the two is that Bagwell is a better hitter. His astounding season at the plate last year—one of the most remarkable in the history of the game—was merely the latest example. Though A-Rod, who had his own career year, squeaked by Bagwell in batting average (.316 to .310), and tied him in RBIs, Bagwell dominates almost every other category. He hit more home runs (47 to 41) and scored more runs (152 to 134). He had more hits (183 to 175) and total bases (363 to 336) and had a higher slugging percentage (.615 to .606). Bagwell also played in more games (159 to 148).

A look at their stats over the past five seasons gives even more of an edge to Bagwell. From the 1996 season, the first in which Rodriguez played more than one hundred games, through 2000, he has homered 184 times; Bagwell has done it 197 times. Rodriguez has driven in 574 RBIs; Bagwell has banged in 624. Bagwell also leads in slugging percentage, .585 to .574, as well as runs scored, .639 to .608. Though Rodriguez has a slim lead over Bagwell in career slugging percentage (.561 to .552) and batting average (.309 to .305), Bagwell has a lifetime on-base percentage of .417, far ahead of Rodriguez's .374. Both strike out at the same rate (about 19 percent of the time), though Bagwell is far ahead in drawing walks. Over the past five seasons, Bagwell has taken a free pass 627 times. Rodriguez has done so only 301 times.

Bagwell's edge in hitting over A-Rod is all the more significant since their teams live and die by their production at the plate. Both the Astros and the Rangers have won their divisions three times since 1996, but neither has advanced past the first round of the playoffs. Last year the Astros had the worst combined earned run average in the National League, at 5.41; the Rangers had the worst in all of baseball, at 5.52. In the absence of good pitching, it will be run production that gets the Rangers and Astros past the first round. So Bagwell's advantage over the past five years in home runs, runs scored, RBIs, and slugging percentage looms even larger.

Of course, one of the reasons that A-Rod received such a huge deal is his youth. At 25, he's seven years younger than Bagwell. But Bagwell leads in durability too. In the past five seasons, A-Rod has played in 725 games. Bagwell has played in 792. Over the past two seasons, Bagwell has played in 44 more games than Rodriguez, and he has played in every regular season game four times in his career. Rodriguez has done so only once. And so far age hasn't slowed Bagwell down. Last year he had more hits and scored more runs in a season than ever before, and he set the Astros' single-season home run record. Whose record did he break? His own, when he hit 43 in 1997.

In a comparison of their defensive worth, A-Rod fares somewhat better, in part because he is a shortstop, a more critical position than first base. Indeed, some would say that it's useless to compare a first baseman with a shortstop in terms of worth. Statistics guru Bill James, who has written a number of books about baseball, disagrees. "The distinction between a shortstop and a first baseman is not really a troublesome one," he says. "Rodriguez has positional value in that he plays shortstop, but Bagwell is a better hitter. That more or less balances out." Well, perhaps not quite, as you can see by comparing each player with other players at his position. Bagwell's career fielding percentage of .993 ranks him tenth among all active first basemen. A-Rod's .970 ranks him fifteenth among all active shortstops. My point: Though you would expect a shortstop to have a worse fielding percentage than a first baseman, over time Bagwell has proven himself to be better at his postion than A-Rod is at his. Yes, Rodriguez is a great shortstop, but he is no better among his peers

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