Ron Paul was crying into his raw milk over the weekend after coming in second in Maine’s caucus by a mere 192 votes. But his campaign was holding out hope Paul could still win the state with a victory in Washington County, which pushed its vote to next Saturday due to snow.
But at Five Thirty Eight , New York Times blogger Nate Silver was unconvinced after examining Paul’s historical record in the area:
Based on how the county voted in 2008, that seems unlikely. Just 113 votes total were cast in the county in 2008, and only 8 of those were for Mr. Paul. John McCain, instead, won the plurality.
Romney won two neighboring counties this year, so if Paul is to win Washington County, his campaign must “make a concerted effort to turn out any supporters it has in the area,” Silver wrote. The county has 6,907 registered Republicans and 8,247 “unaffiliated registered voters” who could participate in the caucus.
But this could all be moot, as Maine Republicans insist the winner of the state won’t be changed. And if the outcome does change, it would likely only be “a footnote on page B-19,” Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told Maine Today’s Jonathan Riskind.
In an interview with Bob Schieffer on CBS News’ Face the Nation Sunday, Paul said he was “disappointed” about the results in Maine. He also touted his chances in the general election against President Barack Obama, holding that he, like Mitt Romney, could defeat the president.
“I think I could beat him, too,” Paul said. “I think I have appealed to some of those Democrats that he doesn’t have.”