This from a Republican consultant, and it is presented as exact numbers, not an estimate. The commentary is the consultant’s, not mine: Most to least endangered list with the partisan margin after early voting: Democratic incumbents Thibaut -1,983 Maldonado -1,462 Cohen -716 (turnout so high in this district, there is room to come back, but still . . ) Kent -658 Vaught -519 Vo -215 Miklos -32 Moody +199 Hochberg + 278 (turnout so low this actually represents a substantial 5% difference between the candidates, but still . .) >> Rose +435 >> England +488 >> Pierson +584 >> Turner +1,082 >> Dunnam +1,725 >> Howard +3,071 (large turnout) >> Bolton +3,503 (very large turnout) >> Republicans >> Driver +393 >> Harper-Brown +566 >> Legler +1,582 >> Bohac +1,962 >> Anderson +5,892 (disproportionally large because of turnout in Waco Congressional race) * * * * If these margins hold, Democrats will lose 7 seats and pick up none. Even two scandal-ridden reps win in this climate. This list does not include seats where the partisan early vote is unknown. Two of these are the Heflin seat and the Homer seat. The consultant says that both Democrats trail in the polls by around ten points. Losing these two seats would bring the total Democratic losses to nine. Still out there are the Frost, McReynolds, and Herrero seats. And, of course, the Moody, Hochberg, England, Rose, and Pierson races are still tight. if even one of these races turns in favor of Repuiblicans, Democratic losses will be in double digits.
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