This post replaces a previous version. It is based on information from one Robert Miller, with information compiled by Ryan Data & Research (see earlier post, “R analyst predicts urban tsunami”). I’ll try not to get too deep in the weeds here, but … in the earlier version, I posted the number of voters with prior R and D primary voting histories in several crucial legislative races — one-time, two-time, and three-time previous primary voters. A commenter told me that the 1-R and 1-D totals were cumulative through last Thursday. For example, “the 8,200 Rs in Cohen’s seat includes the 4,800 2Rs and 2,600 3Rs. This has led to confusion among political Republican political operatives, and will surely cause the same among your readers without this important clarification.” It surely caused confusion with me. What I am going to provide here are the cumulative totals for voters with previous R and D primary voting histories for races involving the following Democratic incumbents. The totals are estimates based on bar graphs, rounded to the nearest 100. District 93, Paula Pierson 4,200 D, 4,100 R District 96, Chris Turner 7,600 D, 7,100 R District 101, Miklos 4,200 D, 4,800 R District 102, Kent 4,600 D, 5,600 R District 106, England 3,900 D, 3,600 R District 107, Vaught 5,200 D, 5,900 R District 133, Thibaut 4,400 D, 6,100 R District 134, Cohen 9,500 D, 8,400 R District 137, Hochberg 2,000 D, 1,800 R District 149, Vo 5,900 D, 5,700 R This does not include Friday, the last day of early voting, which D’s claim went “boffo” for them. And all the speculation ends tomorrow.
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