The very last poll of the election season is the final newspapers’ poll. Perry is +12, 49% to 37%. This is less a reflection of Perry’s and White’s individual strengths and weaknesses than it is a reflection of the generic difference between the parties: 2008 Presidential: McCain 55.45 – Obama 43.68 2008 U.S. Senate: Cornyn 54.28 – Noriega 42.83 Other 08 races were closer: Railroad Commissioner: Williams 52.13 – Thompson 44.03 The margins in all three Texas Supreme Court races were between 6 and 10 points. I take the smaller margins to indicate a measure of disatisfaction with the Court rather than as a sign of weakness of individual candidates. It is natural to find some ticket splitting in downballot races. The presidential and Senate races in 08 suggest that Republicans enjoy a twelve point lead over Democrats in major races. All the money and all the advertising didn’t move the needle that measures the difference between the parties.
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