Cruz’s strength in the primary was the suburbs. He won Collin, Denton, and Montgomery counties and fought Dewhurst to a draw in Fort Bend. Dewhurst underperformed in the cities and the suburbs but swamped Cruz in rural Texas.
The urban counties were virtually a dead heat:
So why did Cruz trail Dewhurst by a significant percentage in the primary (Dewhurst 44.67%, Cruz 34.09%?) statewide?
The answer is twofold. One is that Dewhurst’s momentum collapsed in the last days of early voting and on election day, while Cruz’s continued to build. The other is that Dewhurst strongest support came from rural Texas. He crushed Cruz in rural counties. Some sample counties:
Hays (San Marcos):
Hays is partly rural, partly suburban.
As a broad generalization, I would say that any runoffs in urban and suburban areas should bring more Cruz voters to the polls; any runoffs in rural areas should bring more Dewhurst voters to the polls.