I don’t think they are very good. First, the Coastal Bend region has been trending Republican in local races for some time, going back at least to 2008 and before. Second, the strongest-voting Republican county in Lozano’s district is San Patricio. Lozano switched parties knowing (presumably) that he already had a primary challenger from San Pat, a prominent Anglo architect who is civically active. Third, Lozano has no roots in the northern part of the district. He comes from Brooks County, deep in South Texas. He moved to Kleberg County, but Kleberg, Jim Wells, and and Bee counties combined can’t make up for the 5,000 or so votes from San Patricio. Fourth, this is a 50% minority district. There are a lot of Democrats. They aren’t just going to sit around and wish Lozano a fond farewell. They’re going to try to punish him for switching parties. He will have a Democratic general election opponent. So the problem for Lozano is that he has to get out of the primary in a new party, dragging all the votes he cast last session as a Democrat, in a part of the state where he has never run before, before he is well established in his new party. The question I want to ask is: Does the name “Aaron Pena” mean anything to you? I thought Lozano was a very promising freshman. But he is a marked man now. Democrats don’t have the resources to do much, but they have enough to wreak vengeance on a party switcher. He is going to have a competitive primary, and a tough general election for the rest of his political career, which may not last too long.
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